Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?

Total Volume

$2.32K

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When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?

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$2.32K

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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Volume DistributionTotal: $2.32K

100%

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3 markets tracked

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2029?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2029?	Kalshi	32%
Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	22%
Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

32%

Top Probability

$2.32K

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About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2029 If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from President Donald J. Trump or the White House qualifies for this market, including Trump’s official Truth Social account and the White House Cabinet page. Reports that merely reference publications from before Issuance do not quali

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2029

If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from President Donald J. Trump or the White House qualifies for this market, including Trump’s official Truth Social account and the White House Cabinet page. Reports that merely reference publications from before Issuance do not quali

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from President Donald J. Trump or "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $455
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?

Volume$2.32K

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KALSHI

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 32.0¢No 68.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2029?

If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from President Donald J. Trump or

KALSHI

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2028?

If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from President Donald J. Trump or

KALSHI

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2027?

If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from President Donald J. Trump or

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Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2029?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?

Markets (3)

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2029?

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2029?

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2029?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2029?

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2029?

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2027?

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