$9.59K
1
17
$9.59K
1
17
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before Jan 1, 2027 If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a level 3 or lower travel advisory X after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2027 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appear
Prediction markets currently assign a 57% probability that the United Kingdom will experience a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, before the end of 2026. This price, trading on Kalshi, indicates the market views a UK recession as more likely than not, but remains highly uncertain. With approximately $81,000 in total volume spread thinly across four country-specific markets, liquidity is limited, suggesting the consensus is not yet strongly entrenched.
The primary factor supporting the elevated recession risk is the UK's persistent inflation and the Bank of England's constrained monetary policy. Core inflation has remained stubbornly high compared to peers, forcing the central bank to maintain a restrictive stance for longer, which increases pressure on household consumption and business investment. Secondly, the UK's unique post-Brexit trade frictions and weaker productivity growth have created structural economic headwinds that amplify vulnerability to global slowdowns. Historical context is also critical, the UK narrowly avoided a recession in 2023 but has since exhibited near-zero growth, leaving it on a knife's edge.
The most immediate catalyst for shifting these odds will be the incoming GDP data for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. Two consecutive negative quarters would confirm the recession bet and cause the "Yes" share price to spike. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected uptick in consumer spending or a faster decline in inflation, allowing for earlier interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, could significantly lower the perceived probability. Key dates to watch are the Office for National Statistics' quarterly GDP releases, with the next major data points in early 2025 being pivotal for this market's trajectory.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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17 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Ukraine? | Kalshi | 56% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Burma (Myanmar)? | Kalshi | 51% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Yemen? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Sudan? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for South Sudan? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Somalia? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Russia? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for North Korea? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Libya? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Lebanon? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Iraq? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Haiti? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Gaza? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Afghanistan? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Venezuela? | Kalshi | 39% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Syria? | Kalshi | 15% |
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Iran? | Kalshi | 14% |
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