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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Name: Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T23:55:00.000Z

Total Volume

$19.59K

Events

Markets

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Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Vol

$19.59K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $19.59K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.59K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

19 markets tracked

Will BNY fail by end of 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Will BNY fail by end of 2026?	Poly	49%
Will BMO fail by end of 2026?	Poly	48%
Will RBC fail by end of 2026?	Poly	40%
Will US Bank fail by end of 2026?	Poly	34%
Will Santander fail by end of 2026?	Poly	21%
Will BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026?	Poly	18%
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	Poly	17%
Will Bank of America fail by end of 2026?	Poly	10%
Will Morgan Stanley fail by end of 2026?	Poly	9%
Will Citigroup fail by end of 2026?	Poly	8%
Will Wells Fargo fail by end of 2026?	Poly	8%
Will HSBC fail by end of 2026?	Poly	8%
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by end of 2026?	Poly	7%
Will Goldman Sachs fail by end of 2026?	Poly	7%
Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?	Poly	6%
Will KeyBank fail by end of 2026?	Poly	5%
Will Scotiabank fail by end of 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Truist fail by end of 2026?	Poly	3%
Will UBS fail by end of 2026?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

49%

Top Probability

$19.59K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range: - The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (175 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:

- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s ap"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $32.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.60)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Goldman Sachs fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Bank of America fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $33
  DATA: [Yes: 10.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Santander fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $30
  DATA: [Yes: 20.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will BMO fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will KeyBank fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $111
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $405
  DATA: [Yes: 17.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.7% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Citigroup fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Morgan Stanley fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will US Bank fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $18
  DATA: [Yes: 34.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Scotiabank fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will BNY fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $43
  DATA: [Yes: 49.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.6% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will JPMorgan Chase fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will HSBC fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $51
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will UBS fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $90
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Wells Fargo fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Truist fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will RBC fail by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $42
  DATA: [Yes: 40.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance