30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2026
PM $108.3K · K 45.4K contracts
3
25
30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2026
PM $108.3K · K 45.4K contracts
3
25
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is ↑ 7.50% at 41%, and Yes is priced at 4% on Kalshi.
Polymarket
- ↑ 7.50%41%
- ↑ 8.00%28%
- ↑ 7.75%27%
- ↓ 6.75%26.5%
- ↓ 6.50%23%
Kalshi
- Yes4%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $108.3K · K 45.4K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
25
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
2026 If the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, PMMS, 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage reported in Freddie Mac’s final PMMS release published during 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The year-end rate is the weekly 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the final PMMS release published during calendar year 2026. Only the initially published value from that release will be used; subsequent revisions will not affect resolution. Earlier weekly readings do not determine the outcome.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks about the 30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2026. Under the listed rules, a market resolves to Yes if the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate in the final PMMS release published during 2026 is above a threshold X [1]. The year-end rate is the weekly 30-year fixed-rate average in that release, and only the initially published value is used, so later revisions do not affect resolution [1]. The source also states that earlier weekly readings do not determine the outcome [1].
Each market in the sample uses a different threshold, from above 6.00% to above 9.00% [1]. Each threshold is a separate yes or no question, so the prices should be read one threshold at a time.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-19T07:08:57.553Z [1]. These are past snapshot values, not live readings. Yes prices ranged from 0.98 for the above 6.00% threshold to 0.02 for the above 9.00% threshold [1]. Yes prices near 0.50 appear at the 7.00%, 7.50%, 7.75%, and 8.00% thresholds [1].
The saved list is not in threshold order. For example, the above 7.25% market shows Yes at 0.76, while the above 7.00% and above 7.75% markets show 0.50 [1]. Readers should compare thresholds by their numeric value rather than by list position.
The sample is partial: 12 of 13 markets for this event are included [1]. The omitted market is not shown, so nothing can be concluded about its price, and this is not the complete field. Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
What remains uncertain
Each market lists an end date of 2027-01-07T18:26:00.000Z [1]. The provider excerpt states that the listed end time is not supplied, so the close timing should be read cautiously [1]. The excerpt also does not identify the publication date of the final 2026 PMMS release, so the resolution timing cannot be confirmed from this evidence [1].
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it contains no trader count or recent news. Readers should check the current contract rules and provider status before relying on this snapshot.
References
- Kalshi: 30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2026. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a Kalshi event asking where the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average will be at the end of 2026. It is tied to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage series [1]. The contract's rules say the year-end reading is the weekly 30-year fixed-rate average in the final PMMS release published during calendar year 2026 [1]. Each threshold market asks whether that reading will be above a stated percentage, such as 6.00% or 7.50% [1]. The resolution rule is narrow. Only the initially published value from that final release is used, and later revisions do not change the outcome. Earlier weekly readings during 2026 do not determine the result [1]. The listed market record shows an end date of January 7, 2027, but that date comes from the contract data and is not an announced publication date for the PMMS release [1]. A fixed-rate mortgage is one where the interest rate on the note stays the same for the life of the loan, so the borrower's payment amounts are fixed and easier to budget for [2]. An adjustable-rate mortgage instead has its rate periodically adjusted based on an index that reflects the lender's cost of borrowing [3]. The PMMS series used in this contract tracks the fixed-rate type [1][2]. The market snapshot was observed on October 19, 2026 at 06:00 UTC and retrieved shortly after [1]. It lists twelve threshold markets from the saved event, ordered for display by Yes price. The Yes prices in that snapshot run from 0.98 for the above 6.00% threshold down to 0.02 for the above 9.00% threshold. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The sample covers twelve of thirteen markets in this event, so it is not the complete set of thresholds for this event.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the level of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the final PMMS release published in 2026 [1]. Because the reading is a weekly average from one release, the outcome depends on that single initially published figure rather than on the trend over the year [1]. Traders and readers can use the threshold markets to see how the snapshot prices compare across different percentage levels, while keeping in mind that a price is not a measured probability [1]. A fixed-rate mortgage's stable payment is the feature that makes its rate level relevant to borrowers planning a budget [2].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What reading determines whether a threshold market resolves Yes?
The year-end rate is the weekly 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the final PMMS release published during calendar year 2026. Only the initially published value from that release is used [1].
Do earlier weekly readings in 2026 affect the outcome?
No. The contract states that earlier weekly readings do not determine the outcome [1].
What happens if Freddie Mac revises the figure later?
Subsequent revisions do not affect resolution, because only the initially published value from the final release is used [1].
What does the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage mean?
A fixed-rate mortgage is one where the interest rate on the note remains the same through the term of the loan, so payment amounts stay fixed [2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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