Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Oct 28, 2026?
K 2.5K contracts
1
6
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Oct 28, 2026?
K 2.5K contracts
1
6
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is 51° to 52° at 99%.
Kalshi
- 51° to 52°99%
- 49° to 50°1%
- 55° or above0.5%
- 46° or below0.5%
- 53° to 54°0.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 2.5K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
6
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
On Oct 28, 2026 If the minimum temperature recorded at San Francisco, CLISFO, for Oct 28, 2026, is X than Y fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company. Reading weather data Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value. Use caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings. If it is determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange that there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, Expiration may be held until the publication of a non-materially-erroneous data revision or until the Expiration Date, whichever comes first. If no data is available at the end of this period, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi. Please note, a status of "Final" on weather.com/kalshi is provided for convenience only, and does not guarantee data to be error-free and thus exempt from the above. The Last Trading Time will be 11:59 PM local time on October 28, 2026 regardless of any data releases or events occurring. Expiration will occur on the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET following the release of the data for October 28, 2026, or one week after October 28, 2026.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T00:00:06.241Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether the minimum temperature for San Francisco on October 28, 2026 will fall in a stated range. The rules say the market resolves on the reading at the station "CLISFO" as reported by The Weather Company, not on other weather services. The source states that "the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company" [1]. Preliminary readings "may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value" [1].
The rules also set timing. The Last Trading Time is "11:59 PM local time on October 28, 2026," and expiration occurs on the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET after the data release, or one week after October 28 [1]. The provider's listed end time is "not supplied" [1], but the saved market records show an end date of 2026-11-04T14:00:00Z. That conflicts with the source's statement, so readers should check the exchange page before relying on either timestamp.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-28T00:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-28T02:43:50Z [1]. These are historical snapshots, not live quotes. They are not executable prices and should not be read as verified probabilities.
The saved Yes prices are: 49-50 degrees at 0.525, 51-52 at 0.395, 53-54 at 0.045, 47-48 at 0.025, above 54 at 0.010, and below 47 at 0.005. The six Yes prices sum to about 1.005. The 49-50 and 51-52 ranges carry most of the quoted weight in this snapshot.
The coverage record lists six of six markets included, with no partial sample [1]. The sample warning, however, states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A low price on any listed range should not be read as a judgment about an omitted outcome. Volume and ordering are also limited: the sample ranks markets by Yes price, so the order does not indicate liquidity or trader activity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices were at these levels, how many traders hold positions, or whether these quotes could be filled. It also does not confirm the observed temperature, since no resolution data is supplied. Differences between these prices and any other platform's contracts should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without matching the exact wording, station, data source, and closing times.
References
- Kalshi: Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Oct 28, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T00:00:06.241Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks whether the minimum temperature recorded in San Francisco for October 28, 2026 falls within a specific range. It belongs to the Climate and Weather event titled "Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Oct 28, 2026?" [1]. The saved event contains six markets, each with Yes and No outcomes. Four markets cover narrow bands (47-48, 49-50, 51-52 and 53-54 degrees), and two cover open-ended tails (below 47 degrees and above 54 degrees) [1]. The rules state that the market resolves based on the minimum temperature recorded at San Francisco, identified as CLISFO, for October 28, 2026, as reported by The Weather Company [1]. The rules say that other weather services such as AccuWeather or Google Weather may help a trader form a view, but they are not the official value for settlement [1]. The rules also warn that preliminary Weather Company data may differ from the final reported value because of rounding and unit conversion [1]. The rules include a process for data errors. If the Exchange determines that the initial non-preliminary publication contains a material error, expiration may wait for a corrected revision or until the expiration date, whichever comes first. If no data is available at the end of that period, all markets resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi [1]. The rules also say that a "Final" status on the weather data pages is provided for convenience and does not guarantee the data is error-free [1]. Trading closes at 11:59 PM local time on October 28, 2026, regardless of data releases or events occurring at that time [1]. Expiration occurs at the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET following the release of the October 28 data, or one week after October 28 [1]. These are contract mechanics, not announced event dates. The market data reflects a snapshot observed at 00:00:06 UTC on October 28, 2026 and retrieved at 02:44:14 UTC the same day [1]. The status and prices shown here describe that snapshot only.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single daily figure, the minimum temperature recorded for October 28, 2026 at San Francisco's CLISFO location as reported by The Weather Company [1]. Each market asks whether that figure lands in one band or outside a tail. Because the outcome depends on one named data source and its reporting rules, the contract is narrowly defined, and a reader should check the specific resolution language rather than general weather forecasts [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What temperature does this contract measure?
It measures the minimum temperature recorded at San Francisco, CLISFO, for October 28, 2026, as reported by The Weather Company [1].
Can forecasts from other weather apps decide the outcome?
No. The rules say other services may help guide a decision, but the official value used for the market is the figure reported by The Weather Company [1].
What happens if the preliminary data is later corrected?
The rules say preliminary data may differ from the final value because of rounding and conversion. If a material error is found in the initial publication, expiration may be held until a corrected revision is published or until the expiration date, whichever comes first [1].
When does trading close?
The rules state that the last trading time is 11:59 PM local time on October 28, 2026, regardless of any data releases or events occurring at that time [1].
Does the listed end date mean an event is scheduled?
The saved market records show an end date of November 4, 2026 at 14:00 UTC, but the provider excerpt notes that no listed end time was supplied. The expiration rules describe when settlement occurs, not an announced event, so the end date should be read as contract mechanics [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
