Lowest temperature in San Antonio on Oct 28, 2026?
K 1.7K contracts
1
6
Lowest temperature in San Antonio on Oct 28, 2026?
K 1.7K contracts
1
6
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is 66° or above at 99.5%.
Kalshi
- 66° or above99.5%
- 64° to 65°1%
- 57° or below0.5%
- 62° to 63°0.5%
- 60° to 61°0.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 1.7K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
6
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
On Oct 28, 2026 If the minimum temperature recorded at San Antonio, CLISAT, for Oct 28, 2026, is X than Y fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company. Reading weather data Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value. Use caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings. If it is determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange that there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, Expiration may be held until the publication of a non-materially-erroneous data revision or until the Expiration Date, whichever comes first. If no data is available at the end of this period, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi. Please note, a status of "Final" on weather.com/kalshi is provided for convenience only, and does not guarantee data to be error-free and thus exempt from the above. The Last Trading Time will be 11:59 PM local time on October 28, 2026 regardless of any data releases or events occurring. Expiration will occur on the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET following the release of the data for October 28, 2026, or one week after October 28, 2026.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The snapshot covers a Kalshi event asking about the lowest temperature in San Antonio on October 28, 2026 [1]. The source states that the market resolves based on the minimum temperature recorded at San Antonio, CLISAT, for that date, "according to The Weather Company" [1]. The source also says that "the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company" and that other weather services are not the resolution basis [1].
The rules set timing separately from observation. The source says "The Last Trading Time will be 11:59 PM local time on October 28, 2026 regardless of any data releases or events occurring," and that expiration occurs at "the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET following the release of the data for October 28, 2026, or one week after October 28, 2026" [1]. The provider's listed end time for these contracts is 2026-11-04T14:00:00Z, but the source excerpt says the "Listed end time: not supplied," so the rule text and the provider field should be read as different information.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z, and the archive retrieved the source at 2026-10-28T07:34:26.026Z [1]. These are historical snapshot values, not live or executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
Six temperature ranges are saved, each with a Yes price: greater than 65 degrees at 0.735, 64 to 65 degrees at 0.13, 62 to 63 degrees at 0.015, below 58 degrees at 0.01, 60 to 61 degrees at 0.005, and 58 to 59 degrees at 0.005. The saved Yes prices sum to 0.90, so the set does not cover every possible outcome at the quoted levels. Each range is a separate contract, so the prices should be read individually rather than combined or compared as if they were one question.
The coverage record shows 6 of 6 markets included for this event with no partial sample [1]. The selection note says the ordering used the Yes price, and the sample warning says the saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A low price on one range therefore does not show that unlisted ranges are priced lower.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are, and it reports no trader count or liquidity. The source also notes that preliminary Weather Company data "may be subject to rounding and conversion differences," and that resolution could be held for a material-error revision [1]. Because the observation is from earlier on October 28, 2026, later prices and the final observed minimum may differ.
References
- Kalshi: Lowest temperature in San Antonio on Oct 28, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This market asks whether the minimum temperature recorded in San Antonio for October 28, 2026 will fall into a given range. Under the contract rules, the resolution value is the minimum temperature at the San Antonio station identified as CLISAT, as reported by The Weather Company [1]. The rules say that other weather services, such as AccuWeather or Google Weather, may help inform a decision, but they are not the official value [1]. The rules also name The Weather Company's reported figure as final, so a reader should check that provider's publication rather than a general forecast. The contract includes several timing rules. Trading closes at 11:59 PM local time on October 28, 2026, regardless of any data releases or events that occur [1]. Expiration occurs at the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET after the October 28 data is released, or one week after October 28 [1]. These are contract rules, not announced event dates. The rules also warn that preliminary Weather Company readings may differ from the final value because of rounding and unit conversion [1]. If a material error is found in the initial publication, expiration may be delayed until a corrected revision is published or the expiration date arrives, whichever is first [1]. The market set in this record consists of six contracts that were all saved for this event, each with a Yes and No price. The Yes prices in the snapshot are 0.735 for a minimum above 65 degrees, 0.13 for 64 to 65 degrees, 0.015 for 62 to 63 degrees, 0.01 for below 58 degrees, 0.005 for 60 to 61 degrees, and 0.005 for 58 to 59 degrees. These are snapshot prices from the provider observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they do not show the current state of the market. The saved sample includes all six markets for this event, but the sample notice does not establish that the provider lists every possible temperature outcome. Because each contract is priced separately, the prices should not be read as a complete probability distribution, and differences between contracts are not, by themselves, an opportunity to trade. A name check is also useful. The Wikipedia entry for San Antonio describes a city in southern Texas that is the county seat of Bexar County [2]. A separate entry describes San Antonio Oeste, a port city in Argentina [3]. The contract's CLISAT station reference points to a specific weather station, and the rules excerpt does not name the state, so the station identifier is the more precise guide to what the contract measures.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single, specific weather observation: the minimum temperature at the CLISAT station in San Antonio for October 28, 2026, as reported by The Weather Company [1]. Because the outcome depends on one named provider's final publication, the contract is narrower than a general forecast about weather in the area. Traders and readers can use the rules to see which data source decides the outcome, when trading stops, and how a delayed or corrected publication would be handled [1]. The price snapshots show how the event's outcomes were priced at one observation time, which is useful context but not a live or verified estimate of what will happen.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What temperature decides the outcome?
The outcome is decided by the minimum temperature recorded at San Antonio, CLISAT, for October 28, 2026, as reported by The Weather Company [1].
Do forecasts from other weather services decide the market?
No. The rules say that services such as AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide a decision, but the official value is the figure reported by The Weather Company [1].
When does trading stop?
Trading closes at 11:59 PM local time on October 28, 2026, regardless of any data releases or events occurring [1].
When does expiration happen?
Expiration occurs at the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET following the release of the October 28 data, or one week after October 28, 2026 [1].
What happens if the data is later corrected?
If the Exchange determines there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, expiration may be held until a non-materially-erroneous revision is published or until the expiration date, whichever comes first [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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