Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?

Name: Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?
End: 2026-01-29T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$25.60K

Events

Markets

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Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $25.60K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $25.60K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$25.60K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

"This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 29, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or up

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 29, 2026 (14 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 29, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or up

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
""This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 29, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $25.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 29, 2026): Vol $25.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

13d 8h remaining

Jan 29, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

1¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?

Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?

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Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)