Rain in NYC in Nov 2026?
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Rain in NYC in Nov 2026?
K 0 contracts
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4
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 1 inches at 93.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 1 inches93.5%
- Above 2 inches86.5%
- Above 3 inches69%
- Above 4 inches42.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
In Nov 2026 If the total precipitation at Central Park, New York City in Nov 2026 is strictly greater than X inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T18:00:06.010Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether rain in New York City in November 2026 will exceed a set threshold. The source states: "If the total precipitation at Central Park, New York City in Nov 2026 is strictly greater than X inches, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] Each saved market uses a different X, so the four contracts are separate questions. "Strictly greater than" means that a total exactly equal to the threshold would not satisfy the Yes condition.
The excerpt also contains an early close condition: "If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET." [1] The provider lists the status as active and the listed end time as "not supplied." [1] The market records, however, carry an end date of 2026-12-07T15:00:00.000Z. [1] Readers should treat the timestamp in the market record as the saved closing field and check the provider page for how it relates to the early close wording.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-27T18:00:06.010Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-27T18:48:57.629Z. [1] These values describe that moment only and are not live quotes.
For Yes outcomes, the saved prices are:
- Above 1 inch: 0.945
- Above 2 inches: 0.895
- Above 3 inches: 0.75
- Above 4 inches: 0.54
[1]
The prices fall as the threshold rises, which is what the wording would lead a reader to expect, since a higher total is a harder condition to meet. The sample includes all four saved markets for this event, and the record marks it as not partial. [1] The provider notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome." [1] Because every contract here is from one event, these prices can be compared with each other, but they should not be combined with prices from other events or platforms.
Prices are not verified probabilities, executable quotes, or evidence of liquidity. The volume field is not included in the summary, so no trading depth can be inferred.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are at these levels, how many participants are trading, or whether the snapshot still matches current prices. It also does not provide any rainfall data for November 2026 or any official forecast. A difference between two contracts' prices does not, by itself, indicate an opportunity, because the thresholds and closing rules differ and the snapshot is not executable. Readers should confirm the current rules, close timing, and status on the provider page before relying on any figure.
References
- Kalshi: Rain in NYC in Nov 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T18:00:06.010Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks whether total precipitation at Central Park, New York City, during November 2026 will be strictly greater than a stated number of inches. The provider's rules state that if that total is strictly greater than the threshold, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The threshold is the only variable that changes between the contracts in this event. The sample includes four thresholds, at 1, 2, 3, and 4 inches. The contract is tied to a measurement, not to a forecast or to a news event. Because the rule refers to the total for the month, the outcome depends on rainfall recorded across all of November 2026 at the named location. The provider's rules also include an early close condition. If the event described in that condition occurs, the market closes on the following day at 10am ET [1]. The provider excerpt does not describe that event in further detail, so the article does not infer what would trigger it. As of the observation time, the sampled contracts had not resolved, because the measurement period covers November 2026 and the observation date is October 27, 2026. A listed end date of December 7, 2026 appears in the saved market records. That date describes when the market is listed to end under the sample record. It is not an announced event date, and the provider excerpt itself does not supply a listed end time. Prices shown for these contracts are snapshots at the time they were recorded. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of rain. Trading volume should not be read as liquidity or as the number of participants. Differences between the prices of contracts with different thresholds reflect different outcomes being priced, so they should not be read as an opportunity by themselves.
Historical Context
The two Wikipedia articles retrieved for this topic describe winter storms earlier in 2026, not rainfall in November 2026 or the measurement rules of this contract. One describes a blizzard from February 22 to 24, 2026, which dropped snow across a large part of the Northeastern United States, including the megalopolis from Philadelphia to Boston [2]. The other describes a winter storm from January 23 to 27, 2026, which brought snow and ice impacts across parts of Mexico, the United States, and Canada [3]. These articles are background on other weather events in the same general region and year. They do not establish any observed rainfall total for November 2026, and they do not confirm current conditions.
Why It Matters
The contract measures total precipitation for a single calendar month at one location. Its value is in showing how a specific weather measurement is defined for a market. The rule specifies the place, which is Central Park in New York City, the period, which is November 2026, and the quantity, which is total precipitation [1]. A reader can use that definition to understand what a Yes or No outcome would mean for each threshold. Because the measurement period has not ended as of the observation time, the outcome is not yet known.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome require?
According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to Yes if the total precipitation at Central Park, New York City, in November 2026 is strictly greater than the threshold in the contract [1]. A total equal to the threshold does not meet the condition described by the word strictly.
Where and when is the rainfall measured?
The rules name Central Park, New York City, and the period of November 2026 [1]. The contract is not about rain on any single day or at other locations.
What is the early close condition?
The rules say that if the event described in the early close condition occurs, the market closes the following day at 10am ET [1]. The provider excerpt does not explain what that event is beyond that wording, so the article does not describe it further.
Do the contract prices show the chance of rain?
The prices are snapshots from the time they were recorded. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be treated as a forecast of rainfall.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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