Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Hawaii total visitor arrivals in 2026

Total Volume

$22.73K

Events

Markets

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Hawaii total visitor arrivals in 2026

Vol

$22.73K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $22.73K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $22.73K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.4 million?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.4 million?	Kalshi	98%
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.6 million?	Kalshi	76%
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.8 million?	Kalshi	16%
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.0 million?	Kalshi	7%
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.2 million?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$22.73K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above X million, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is total statewide visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026, including visitors arriving by air and visitors arriving aboard out-of-state cruise ships, as reported by the State of Hawaii. It does not use visitor days, average daily census, airport passenger throughput, or arrivals to an individual island. Visitors who fly to Hawaii to board a cruise ship are alre

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Hawaii total visitor arrivals in 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above X million, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is total statewide visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026, including visitors arriving by air and visitors arriving aboard out-of-state cruise ships, as reported by the State of Hawaii. It does not use visitor days, average daily census, airport passenger throughput, or arrivals to an individual island. Visitors who fly to Hawaii to board a cruise ship are alre

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above 

9.8 million, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is total statewide visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026, including visitors arriving by air and visitors arriving aboard out-of-state cruise ships"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $22.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.8 million?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2027): Vol $6.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.6 million?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2027): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.4 million?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2027): Vol $98
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.2 million?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2027): Vol $7.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.0 million?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Hawaii total visitor arrivals in 2026

Volume$22.73K

Markets5

5 of 5

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.4 million?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHITech

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.4 million?

If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above 9.4 million, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is total statewide visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026, including visitors arriving by air and visitors arriving aboard out-of-state cruise ships

KALSHI

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.6 million?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.5¢No 24.5¢

KALSHITech

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.6 million?

If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above 9.6 million, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is total statewide visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026, including visitors arriving by air and visitors arriving aboard out-of-state cruise ships

KALSHI

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.8 million?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHITech

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.8 million?

If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above 9.8 million, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is total statewide visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026, including visitors arriving by air and visitors arriving aboard out-of-state cruise ships

KALSHI

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.0 million?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHITech

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.0 million?

If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above 10.0 million, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is total statewide visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026, including visitors arriving by air and visitors arriving aboard out-of-state cruise ship

KALSHI

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.2 million?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHITech

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.2 million?

If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above 10.2 million, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is total statewide visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026, including visitors arriving by air and visitors arriving aboard out-of-state cruise ship

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40¢

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Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.4 million?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Hawaii total visitor arrivals in 2026

Markets (5)

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.4 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.4 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.6 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.6 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.8 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.8 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.0 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.0 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.2 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.2 million?

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Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.4 million?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Hawaii total visitor arrivals in 2026

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.4 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.4 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.6 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.6 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.8 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.8 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.0 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.0 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.2 million?

Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.2 million?

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