GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Alaska commercial salmon harvest in 2026?

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Alaska commercial salmon harvest in 2026?

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11 markets tracked

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above?	Kalshi	89%
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 105 million fish or above?	Kalshi	84%
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 110 million fish or above?	Kalshi	78%
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 115 million fish or above?	Kalshi	71%
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 120 million fish or above?	Kalshi	62%
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 125 million fish or above?	Kalshi	55%
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 130 million fish or above?	Kalshi	45%
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 135 million fish or above?	Kalshi	38%
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 140 million fish or above?	Kalshi	30%
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 145 million fish or above?	Kalshi	25%
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 150 million fish or above?	Kalshi	18%

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89%

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About This Event

2026 season If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least X million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Alaska commercial salmon harvest in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026 season

If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least X million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 150 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 150 million fish or above?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 145 million fish or above?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 105 million fish or above?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 140 million fish or above?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 135 million fish or above?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 130 million fish or above?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 125 million fish or above?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 120 million fish or above?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 115 million fish or above?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 110 million fish or above?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Alaska commercial salmon harvest in 2026?

2026 season If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least X million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.

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KALSHI

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.5¢No 11.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above?

If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 100 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 105 million fish or above?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.0¢No 16.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 105 million fish or above?

If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 105 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 110 million fish or above?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 110 million fish or above?

If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 110 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 115 million fish or above?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 115 million fish or above?

If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 115 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 120 million fish or above?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.5¢No 38.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 120 million fish or above?

If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 120 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above?

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Events (1)

Alaska commercial salmon harvest in 2026?

Markets (11)

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 105 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 105 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 110 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 110 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 115 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 115 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 120 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 120 million fish or above?

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Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Alaska commercial salmon harvest in 2026?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 105 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 105 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 110 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 110 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 115 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 115 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 120 million fish or above?

Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 120 million fish or above?

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