Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will Hawaii visitor spending increase YoY in 2026?

Total Volume

$2.46K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Hawaii visitor spending increase YoY in 2026?

Vol

$2.46K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.46K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.46K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Hawaii’s total visitor expenditures for 2026 be above $21.7531 billion?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Hawaii’s total visitor expenditures for 2026 be above $21.7531 billion?	Kalshi	89%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

89%

Top Probability

$2.46K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 If Hawaii’s total visitor expenditures for calendar year 2026 are above $21.7531 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the total statewide visitor expenditures for calendar year 2026, measured in nominal dollars, as reported by the State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism. This includes expenditures associated with visitors arriving by air and by out-of-state cruise ships. It does not use inflation-adjusted spending, average daily visit

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Hawaii visitor spending increase YoY in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If Hawaii’s total visitor expenditures for calendar year 2026 are above 

$21.7531 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the total statewide visitor expenditures for calendar year 2026, measured in nominal dollars, as reported by the State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism. This includes expenditures associated with visitors arriving by air and by out-of-state cruise ships. It does not use inflation-adjusted spending, average daily visit

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Hawaii’s total visitor expenditures for calendar year 2026 are above 

$21.7531 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the total statewide visitor expenditures for calendar year 2026, measured in nominal dollars, as reported by the State of Hawaii Department "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Hawaii’s total visitor expenditures for 2026 be above $21.7531 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics