$53.93K
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$53.93K
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30
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
On Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on January 16, 2026 is X Y then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close on January 16, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after January 16, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
The prediction market is assigning a low probability to the S&P 500 closing within a very narrow 25-point band (6950 to 6974.9999) on January 16, 2026. With a "Yes" share trading at 26%, this implies the market sees roughly a 1-in-4 chance of this specific outcome. This low probability reflects the inherent difficulty of predicting an exact index level over a two-year horizon, especially within such a tight range. The thin liquidity, with only $49,000 in volume spread across 30 related range markets, indicates limited trader conviction and higher pricing uncertainty.
Two primary factors are suppressing the probability. First, the extreme precision required makes this a probabilistic long shot. The S&P 500 has an average daily volatility that can easily exceed the entire 25-point range in question, making a pinpoint landing statistically unlikely. Second, the distant 2026 horizon introduces massive macro uncertainty regarding interest rate paths, corporate earnings cycles, and potential geopolitical events, all of which dwarf the significance of a 0.36% price band. The current pricing suggests traders view any specific two-year forecast as highly speculative, with the market effectively pricing a wide distribution of potential outcomes.
The odds for this specific range will remain volatile and largely driven by broader S&P 500 price momentum rather than the range itself. A sustained bull market rally bringing the index near the 6950 level as the date approaches would cause this probability to spike. Conversely, a bear market would render it nearly zero. Key catalysts that will shift the underlying index and thus this market's odds include Federal Reserve policy meetings, inflation data prints, and quarterly earnings seasons between now and January 2026. The probability will become more meaningful and reactive as the resolution date enters a 6-12 month window, when macroeconomic forecasts gain more precision.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the closing value of the S&P 500 stock market index on January 16, 2026, at 4:00 PM Eastern Standard Time. The S&P 500 is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States, widely regarded as the leading indicator of U.S. large-cap equity performance and a primary benchmark for the overall health of the American stock market. The specific resolution of this market depends on whether the index's closing price falls within a predetermined range, designated as 'X Y' in the description, making it a financial instrument for speculating on medium-term market direction and volatility. The market's closure and expiration are tied to the official release of the index data, governed by exchange rules that modify the typical source agency for such indices. Interest in this topic stems from investors, economists, and policymakers who use forward-looking indicators to gauge market sentiment, assess economic outlooks, and hedge against financial risk. The date of January 16, 2026, positions this as a medium-term forecast, intersecting with potential political events like the aftermath of the 2024 U.S. presidential election and the maturity of current monetary policy cycles, making it a focal point for discussions on economic growth, corporate earnings trajectories, and interest rate environments.
The S&P 500 index was introduced on March 4, 1957, by Standard & Poor's, providing a broader and more modern benchmark than the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Its closing value has served as a daily barometer of U.S. economic confidence for over six decades. Historically, the index has experienced significant volatility around major events, such as the Black Monday crash of October 19, 1987, when it fell 20.5% in a single day, and the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, which erased nearly 50% of its value from peak to trough. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a rapid 34% decline in March 2020, followed by a vigorous recovery fueled by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. The period leading into 2026 will be measured against the high-inflation, rapid-rate-hike environment of 2022-2023, which saw the index enter a bear market. Past precedents, like the market's performance in the third year of a presidential term or following periods of monetary tightening, provide analysts with frameworks for projecting potential price ranges for January 2026.
The S&P 500's level is a critical gauge of wealth and economic sentiment, directly impacting the retirement accounts of millions of Americans through pension funds and 401(k) plans. A significantly higher or lower index than current levels in early 2026 would signal profound shifts in corporate profitability, investor risk appetite, and the cost of capital for businesses, influencing hiring, investment, and economic growth. Beyond direct market participants, the index's performance has political ramifications, often cited as a measure of economic success by administrations and affecting consumer confidence. A sustained downturn could pressure fiscal policy, while a strong rally might influence monetary policy decisions at the Federal Reserve. The outcome of this prediction market aggregates collective intelligence on these complex, interconnected factors.
As of late 2023 and early 2024, the S&P 500 is emerging from a period of monetary policy tightening aimed at curbing high inflation. The market is anticipating a potential pivot by the Federal Reserve toward interest rate cuts in 2024. Corporate earnings for the fourth quarter of 2023 are being reported, providing fresh data on profit resilience. Geopolitical tensions and the upcoming U.S. presidential election are introducing additional layers of uncertainty into market forecasts for the coming years, which will directly influence projections for early 2026.
The regular trading session for U.S. stock markets, including for the constituents of the S&P 500, ends at 4:00 PM Eastern Time. The official closing price of the index is calculated based on the last traded prices of its components at this exact moment, making it a standardized and universally recognized benchmark for daily performance.
The closing value is a market-capitalization-weighted average of the closing prices of all 500 constituent stocks. It is calculated by S&P Dow Jones Indices using a proprietary formula that accounts for each company's float-adjusted market cap, ensuring larger companies have a greater impact on the index's movement than smaller ones.
As of December 2023, the largest constituents by index weight are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, and Alphabet (Google). The performance of these mega-cap technology and consumer discretionary companies has an outsized influence on the index's overall direction.
The index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices periodically adds and removes companies to maintain the index's representation of the U.S. large-cap market. The index value is calculated to be continuous, meaning these changes are managed to prevent any artificial gap or jump in the reported price, ensuring a consistent time series for prediction market resolution.
The official closing value is published by S&P Dow Jones Indices and disseminated through major financial data providers like Bloomberg and Refinitiv. It is also widely reported by financial news outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, and Reuters immediately after the market closes.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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30 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the S&P 500 be between 6950 and 6974.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 43% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6925 and 6949.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 30% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6975 and 6999.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 19% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6900 and 6924.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 19% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 7000 and 7024.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 14% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6875 and 6899.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 7% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6725 and 6749.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6550 and 6574.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 5% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6850 and 6874.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 7025 and 7049.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6825 and 6849.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be above 7249.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be below 6550 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 7225 and 7249.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 7200 and 7224.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 7175 and 7199.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 7150 and 7174.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 7125 and 7149.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 7100 and 7124.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 7075 and 7099.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 7050 and 7074.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6800 and 6824.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6775 and 6799.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6750 and 6774.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6700 and 6724.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6675 and 6699.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6650 and 6674.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6625 and 6649.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6600 and 6624.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the S&P 500 be between 6575 and 6599.9999 on Jan 16, 2026 at 4pm EST? | Kalshi | 1% |
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