Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner
PM $43.0K
1
17
Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner
PM $43.0K
1
17
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Wild Horse Nine at 56.5%.
Polymarket
- Wild Horse Nine56.5%
- The Debut21.5%
- Club Kid7.2%
- Obsession6.5%
- Elsinore6%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $43.0K
Reported volume · provider units
17
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event covers the 99th Academy Awards Best Original Screenplay winner. The rules say the market "will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay" [1]. Each listed film has its own Yes/No contract. A film that is not officially nominated when the nominees are announced "will immediately resolve to 'No'" [1]. The rules also say that if "no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules describe nominations as "scheduled to be announced on January 21" and the ceremony on "March 14, 2027" [1]. These are dates stated in the rules, not confirmed announcements.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-19T03:00:06Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 03:59:18Z the same day [1]. The sample includes 12 of 17 markets in this provider event [1]. Among the included contracts, Wild Horse Nine has a Yes price of 0.57, The Debut 0.1865, Elsinore 0.082, Club Kid 0.0815, and Obsession 0.065. The remaining included Yes prices range from 0.0265 to 0.0565 [1].
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The included Yes prices sum to more than 1, so they should not be read as a complete probability distribution. Five omitted markets exist, and their prices are unknown from this evidence. Do not infer that they are lower-priced because they were left out. The sample ranks by Yes price, so the included set reflects the highest-priced contracts, not a random selection.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are. It contains no news, nominee confirmation beyond the rules' wording, or trader count. Volume and trading activity are not reported here, so they cannot be used as a liquidity measure. The rules define resolution through official Academy and AMPAS information, with a "consensus of credible reporting" possibly used as well [1]. Tie-breaking uses alphabetical order of the listed titles [1]. Readers comparing this with other platforms should check wording and close times first, since different contracts are not an arbitrage opportunity merely because their prices differ.
References
- Polymarket: Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
The Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner market is a Polymarket event about the 99th Academy Awards. The provider describes the Academy Awards as presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film [1]. Each contract in this event asks whether one named film will win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards [1]. The provider rules state that nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21 and that the ceremony is scheduled for March 14, 2027 [1]. These are dates written into the contract rules, not confirmed announcements of events. The listed end time for the event is 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules say a contract resolves according to the listed film that wins the award [1]. If a film is not officially nominated when the 2027 nominees are announced, its contract resolves to "No" [1]. If two nominated films tie for the win, the contract resolves in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order [1]. If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The primary resolution source is official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including its website and the live broadcast of the ceremony. The rules also allow a consensus of credible reporting to be used [1]. The record includes 12 of the 17 contracts in this event, so it is a partial sample [1]. The included contracts are ordered by their reported Yes price, and the sample does not show the full set of nominees or rank contracts that were left out. Current status and price details are shown separately in the dated snapshot.
Why It Matters
The contract measures one outcome: which film wins Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, as defined by the provider's rules [1]. Because the rules tie resolution to official Academy and AMPAS information, the official award result is the reference point for settling each contract [1]. The rules also set specific outcomes for a film that is not nominated, a tie, or a missing winner by the stated deadline, so the terms of each contract depend on those conditions as well as on the winner [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether a film's contract resolves to Yes?
The rules say the market resolves according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay [1]. The official resolution source is the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including the live ceremony broadcast, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
What happens if a film is not nominated?
If a film is not officially nominated for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, its corresponding market resolves immediately to "No" [1].
How are ties handled?
In case of a tie for the winner, the market resolves in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order [1].
What happens if no winner is declared in time?
If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Do the prices show the chance that a film wins?
The prices are snapshots of listed prices at the time they were observed. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the price records here do not establish how likely any film is to win [1].
Does the sample include every contract in this event?
No. The record includes 12 of 17 contracts from this event, so the sample is partial and does not show the full set of contracts [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.