Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event covers the winner of Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, as described in the market rules [1]. Each listed contract asks whether one named film will win. The rules say the market "will resolve according to the listed film that wins" the award [1]. If a film is not nominated when the nominees are announced, its corresponding market "will immediately resolve to 'No'" [1]. A tie is resolved in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first alphabetically [1]. If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the rules say the market resolves to "Other" [1].

The rules state that nominations are scheduled for January 21 and the ceremony for March 14, 2027 [1]. These are dates from the contract text, not confirmed announcements in this evidence.

Closing times differ across the contracts. Most list an end time of 2027-03-14T23:59:00Z, while "All of a Sudden" lists 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z [1]. Readers comparing contracts should check each listed end time before comparing them.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-20T03:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-20T04:11:17Z [1]. These are observations from that point, not current quotes. The prices are not executable and should not be read as verified probabilities.

Among the included contracts, the highest Yes prices are The Black Ball at 0.515, The Odyssey at 0.225, and The Invite at 0.195 [1]. Each is a separate binary contract, so these numbers describe those contracts only. They should not be averaged or combined, and a price difference between contracts is not by itself an arbitrage opportunity.

The sample is partial. The provider event has 15 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The sample was ordered by finite Yes price, then volume [1]. The three omitted markets are not shown here, so this snapshot says nothing about their prices. Volume also should not be read as liquidity or trader count.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it contains no recent reporting or information about how many traders hold each view. It also does not establish how accurate such markets have historically been. The nomination and ceremony dates appear only in the rules text, and the evidence contains no confirmation that they have been announced or changed. Because the snapshot predates any results, the final outcome is not in the evidence.

References

1. Polymarket: Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z.