Solana Up or Down - October 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers one Polymarket contract, "Solana Up or Down - October 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET" [1]. The source says the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and the source states that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T06:55:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time as listed, not a confirmed resolution. The contract rules compare an average over the window with the price at the window's start, so the outcome depends on Chainlink's data for that interval, not on the price at the moment a reader views this page.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, and this review retrieved the source at 2026-10-19T09:32:38.266Z [1]. Both times describe the saved record. They do not show the market's price now.
At the observation time, the saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is small, and the two outcomes sum to 1.00 in this record. The saved status was "active" when retrieved [1].
This sample contains one market and one outcome pair. It is complete for this saved event, with no partial sample flag. The source notes that the included markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because only one platform and one contract appear here, there is no comparison with other platforms or contracts to draw.
What remains uncertain
This evidence does not explain why the prices sit where they do, how many traders hold each side, or how trading volume or liquidity affected the quote. It also does not show what the price is after the observation time. Readers should not treat this snapshot as a forecast or as an indication of how the TWAP will compare with the starting price. The final result depends on the Chainlink data stream for the stated window, and the supplied evidence does not include that result.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term crypto price contract on Polymarket asking whether Solana's price will go up or down over a five-minute window. The listed title is "Solana Up or Down - October 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET" [1]. The contract is grouped under the Crypto category [1]. The rules are specific. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The comparison therefore uses an average over the window, not simply the price at the final moment. A rise in the average that still leaves it below the starting price would resolve "Down". The resolution source is the SOL/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, which the source identifies as a 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The rules also state that the contract concerns only this Chainlink data stream for the SOL/USD pair, and not any other price source or spot market [1]. Traders reading prices from an exchange or aggregator should keep this in mind, because the contract does not settle on those figures. The source records a listed end time of 2026-10-20T06:55:00Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time as listed by the provider. It is not a record of when the contract was settled, and the evidence provided does not show a settlement outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average Solana price over a specific five-minute window is at or above the price at the start of that window, as recorded by the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream [1]. Because it is a short window with a defined data source, its outcome depends on that particular data feed and its averaging method rather than on a general view of Solana's price. The rules say the market is about that stream and not any other sources or spot markets [1]. The contract's provider status was recorded as active in the source snapshot [1], but that is a status at retrieval time, not a current reading.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as an "Up" resolution?
The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Solana, generated by Chainlink, over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price data determines the result?
The resolution source is the SOL/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say the market concerns only that data stream rather than other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the contract close?
The source lists an end time of 2026-10-20T06:55:00Z [1]. This is the listed closing time, and it is separate from the time at which any result is recorded.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.