Skip to main content
Market snapshot: . Prices may have changed since this snapshot.
Events
GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

When will insulated copper cable face Section 232 restrictions?

When will insulated copper cable face Section 232 restrictions?
Vol

PM $16.6K · K 2.4K contracts

|
Events

2

|
Markets

4

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31, 2027 at 44.5%, and on Kalshi it is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 36%.

Polymarket

  1. December 31, 202744.5%
  2. December 31, 202632%

Kalshi

  1. Before Jan 1, 202836%
  2. Before Jan 1, 202727.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $16.6K · K 2.4K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

4

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

About This Event

a Section 232 import restriction takes effect for articles classified under HTSUS statistical reporting number 8544.49.3040 If a Section 232 import restriction takes effect for articles classified under HTSUS statistical reporting number 8544.49.3040 after Issuance and before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. X qualifying restriction is an additional duty above 0%, tariff-rate quota, absolute quota, or other binding quantitative import limit. Coverage through a successor or broader provision qualifies only if it fully encompasses the target line. Country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, and other generally applicable conditions do not disqualify coverage, but coverage limited to a product or end-use subset of the line does. The restriction must take effect; merely signing or issuing an instrument with a later effective date does not qualify until that date. Only reporting from the Federal Register qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources, e.g., wire services, only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiPolitics
Will the tariff on imported kitchen cabinets rise to 50%?

Will the tariff on imported kitchen cabinets rise to 50%?

K 0 contracts
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has in effect a Section 232 tariff of 50% on imports of wood kitchen cabinets and vanities before Jan 2, 2027?Yes 57.5%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 9, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
How long will the next FISA authorization be in 2026?

How long will the next FISA authorization be in 2026?

K 30.7K contracts
Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 90 days become law before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 55.5%
Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 30 days become law before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 53%
Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 1 year become law before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 44.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
When will FISA be reauthorized again?

When will FISA be reauthorized again?

K 22.5K contracts
Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before Apr 1, 2027?Yes 46%
Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 44.5%
Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before Dec 1, 2026?Yes 19%
3 mktsNext deadline Dec 1, 2026 UTC
KalshiCompanies
Will the Treasury grant retroactive cannabis tax relief?

Will the Treasury grant retroactive cannabis tax relief?

K 12.0K contracts
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury or the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announce prior-year Section 280E relief for state-licensed medical marijuana businesses before Jul 1, 2027?Yes 55.5%
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury or the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announce prior-year Section 280E relief for state-licensed medical marijuana businesses before Apr 1, 2027?Yes 38%
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury or the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announce prior-year Section 280E relief for state-licensed medical marijuana businesses before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 22%
3 mktsNext deadline Jan 9, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions?

Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions?

K 2.6K contracts
Will it be reported by the government of Ontario that Ontario ends its broad restrictions on U.S.-produced beverage alcohol by putting into effect a policy authorizing the LCBO to generally resume purchasing and supplying those products for ordinary commercial sale in the province before Jul 1, 2027?Yes 44%
Will it be reported by the government of Ontario that Ontario ends its broad restrictions on U.S.-produced beverage alcohol by putting into effect a policy authorizing the LCBO to generally resume purchasing and supplying those products for ordinary commercial sale in the province before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 12.5%
2 mktsNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Will the Treasury announce sanctions on a Chinese bank?

Will the Treasury announce sanctions on a Chinese bank?

K 430.23 contracts
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury or the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network announce sanctions on a Chinese bank, meaning the addition of an institution licensed as a bank by China's National Financial Regulatory Administration or by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List or to the Correspondent Account or Payable-Through Account Sanctions List, or a final rule imposing a special measure on such an institution under Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act before Apr 1, 2027?Yes 23.5%
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury or the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network announce sanctions on a Chinese bank, meaning the addition of an institution licensed as a bank by China's National Financial Regulatory Administration or by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List or to the Correspondent Account or Payable-Through Account Sanctions List, or a final rule imposing a special measure on such an institution under Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 15%
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury or the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network announce sanctions on a Chinese bank, meaning the addition of an institution licensed as a bank by China's National Financial Regulatory Administration or by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List or to the Correspondent Account or Payable-Through Account Sanctions List, or a final rule imposing a special measure on such an institution under Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act before Nov 11, 2026?Yes 7.5%
3 mktsNext deadline Nov 11, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.