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Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)

Name: UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)
End: 2026-05-03T03:59:59.999Z

Total Volume

$111.85K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)

Vol

$111.85K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $111.85K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $111.85K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	82%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	72%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	68%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	62%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)	Poly	39%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	25%
Will Tim Elliott win by KO or TKO?	Poly	18%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	17%
Will Steve Erceg win by KO or TKO?	Poly	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

82%

Top Probability

$111.85K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Tim Elliott" if Tim Elliott is officially declared the winner of the fight against Steve Erceg at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026. It will resolve to "Steve Erceg" if Steve Erceg is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Tim Elliott" if Tim Elliott is officially declared the winner of the fight against Steve Erceg at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026.

It will resolve to "Steve Erceg" if Steve Erceg is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Tim Elliott and Steve Erceg at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." 

Draws d"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $111.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $82.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.36)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $15
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Tim Elliott win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $14
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 81.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 18.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 28.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $66
  DATA: [Over: 67.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 32.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $111.7K
  DATA: [Tim Elliott: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [Steve Erceg: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Steve Erceg win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $33
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)

Volume$111.85K

Markets9

9 of 9

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Fight to Go the Distance?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 61.5¢No 38.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Fight to Go the Distance?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Tim Elliott and Steve Erceg at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws d

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by submission?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by submission?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Tim Elliott and Steve Erceg at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it wi

POLYMARKET

Will Tim Elliott win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Tim Elliott win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Elliott defeats Steve Erceg at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqua

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Tim Elliott and Steve Erceg at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in

POLYMARKET

Will Steve Erceg win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Steve Erceg win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Steve Erceg defeats Tim Elliott at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqua

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Average Yes Price

44¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/1VoKo1" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)"></iframe>

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UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)

UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)

Markets (9)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will Tim Elliott win by KO or TKO?

Will Tim Elliott win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Steve Erceg win by KO or TKO?

Will Steve Erceg win by KO or TKO?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will Tim Elliott win by KO or TKO?

Will Tim Elliott win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Steve Erceg win by KO or TKO?

Will Steve Erceg win by KO or TKO?

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