Russian strike on Poland by...? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Russian strike on Poland by...?

Name: Russian strike on Poland by...?
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.88M

Events

Markets

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Russian strike on Poland by...?

Vol

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Polymarket

markets · $1.88M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.88M

100%

Polymarket leads

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2 markets tracked

Russian strike on Poland by June 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?	Poly	10%
Russian strike on Poland by December 31?	Poly	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

10%

Top Probability

$1.88M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official P

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Russian strike on Poland by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2025 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official P

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strik"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $27.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.67)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Russian strike on Poland by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2025): Vol $27.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Russian strike on Poland by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $422
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

9¢

Polymarket

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Russian strike on Poland by...?

Russian strike on Poland by...?

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Russian strike on Poland by June 30?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Russian strike on Poland by June 30?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)