GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?

Name: Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$866.67

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?

Vol

$866.67

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $866.67

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $866.67

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?	Poly	72%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

72%

Top Probability

$866.67

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation throu"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $867
* **Total Liquidity:** $169
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.12)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $867
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate