This is a daily weather contract on Polymarket asking for the highest temperature in Guangzhou on October 21, 2026, measured at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport. The event is split into separate brackets, each its own yes or no market. The saved event includes temperature brackets from 28°C or below through 38°C or higher [1]. The saved event contains 11 markets, all of which were included in the sample, so the listed brackets are the full set captured in that provider event [1]. The contract settles on a single number. It resolves to the temperature range containing the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, in whole degrees Celsius, for the observation date [1]. Because the rules specify whole degrees, a reading is rounded to the precision the resolution source publishes, and that is the level used to settle each bracket [1]. The rules also name a fallback. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used instead. If no data exists for the observation date by that same deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The market resolves once the first data point for the following date is published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, whichever comes first [1]. The rules also address data errors. If the resolution source publishes clearly erroneous data caused by technical or operational error, or by unauthorized interference, the market may stay open for up to seven calendar days (ET) from the original release so a correction can be published. If no correction appears in that window, Polymarket may issue a Clarification [1]. Revisions to recorded temperatures are considered only until the first data point for the following date is published [1]. The provider event lists an end time of 2026-10-21T12:00:00Z [1]. This is a field in the contract data. It is not an announced event or a statement about when the weather record will be finalized, and the resolution rules above control how settlement actually happens. The prices in this article are a snapshot observed at 2026-10-19T06:00:06Z. In that snapshot, the highest Yes price was 0.3 for the 33°C bracket, followed by 0.285 for 34°C and 35°C, and 0.245 for 32°C [1]. The lowest bracket, 28°C or below, had a Yes price of 0.0205, and 38°C or higher had 0.006 [1]. These are observed prices at one time, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of the temperature outcome. Different brackets in the same event are not an arbitrage opportunity simply because their prices differ.

Historical Context

The supplied background on Guangzhou is general city information and does not cover this contract or its weather record. Guangzhou, also known as Canton, is described as the capital and largest city of Guangdong in southern China, located on the Pearl River. The city has a history of over 2,200 years and was a major terminus of the Silk Road [2]. No historical temperature records or prior versions of this contract were supplied.

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