Gianni Infantino out as President of FIFA in 2026
PM $555.0K · K 103.7K contracts
2
2
Gianni Infantino out as President of FIFA in 2026
PM $555.0K · K 103.7K contracts
2
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 4.5% on Polymarket, and Yes is priced at 10% on Kalshi.
Polymarket
- Yes4.5%
Kalshi
- Yes10%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $555.0K · K 103.7K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Gianni Infantino If Gianni Infantino leaves from being President of FIFA in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No." For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the specific individual leaves the role as defined in the payout criteria.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Kalshi contract asking whether Gianni Infantino will leave the role of President of FIFA in 2026. The rules state that "If Gianni Infantino leaves from being President of FIFA in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The rules count resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, and other departures from the role, but "Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving" unless the person "formally and permanently ceases to hold the position" [1]. The rules also say the contract "will close and expire early if the specific individual leaves the role" [1]. Death while in the role is handled differently, with contracts that "may resolve to the last fair price" at the Exchange's discretion [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot shows a Yes price of 0.10 and a No price of 0.90 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The provider observation time is 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-22T06:45:12.228Z [1]. Those times describe when the data was captured, not when the contract will close or resolve. The snapshot should not be read as a live price.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. Its coverage record shows one total market and one included market, with no partial sample [1]. No other outcomes or contracts were compared, so no cross-platform or cross-contract conclusions can be drawn from these figures.
What remains uncertain
The market record includes an end date of 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z, but the source excerpt states "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. The two fields conflict, so the listed close time should be checked on the provider page before relying on it. The rules' early-close clause also means the contract may end before any listed date if the condition is met [1].
The evidence does not explain why the price is what it is, and it does not include volume, trader counts, or any recent reporting on the role. Readers should treat the 0.10 Yes price as a single observed snapshot.
References
- Kalshi: Gianni Infantino out as President of FIFA in 2026. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 22, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a binary contract on Kalshi asking whether Gianni Infantino will leave his role as President of FIFA during 2026 [1]. Under the contract rules, the market resolves to Yes if he leaves the role in 2026, and No otherwise. Leaving includes resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of a term without renewal, recall, or any other means by which he no longer holds the position, whether voluntary or involuntary [1]. The rules also set several boundaries. A temporary leave of absence, suspension, or recusal does not count unless the person formally and permanently ceases to hold the position [1]. If he vacates the role and later returns to it, the contract may settle based on the initial vacation [1]. If the death of the office holder occurs while he is in the role, the contracts may settle at the last fair price as determined by the Exchange [1]. If the role itself ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to No [1]. The contract is listed as active on Kalshi, with a provider observation time of 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z and a listed end date of 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z [1]. The end date is a contract listing field. It is not an announced event date, and the rules state that the market will close and expire early if the individual leaves the role as defined [1]. The current price snapshot shows Yes at 0.10 and No at 0.90 at the observation time [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the volume figure cannot be read as liquidity or a count of traders. Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, authorized, or endorsed by the governing league [1].
Historical Context
According to the retrieved Wikipedia excerpt, Infantino was previously Secretary General of UEFA from 2009 to 2016, where he formalised the body's financial regulations and oversaw tournament expansion, such as the UEFA Nations League [2]. The same excerpt says he has been an International Olympic Committee member since 2020 [2]. These are historical background points from the retrieved encyclopedia entry, not a statement of current events.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single event: whether Gianni Infantino stops holding the position of President of FIFA at any point during 2026 [1]. Because the rules count a wide range of departures, including retirement and expiration of a term without renewal, the contract is broader than a resignation question alone [1]. The rules also explain how unusual outcomes would be handled, including death in office, temporary absences, and a role that ceases without a successor [1]. The saved sample includes one market for this event, and the provider data does not establish that every possible outcome is listed [1]. Traders should read the full rules, since the contract's resolution depends on the specific wording rather than on general news about the organization [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-22 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a temporary leave of absence count as leaving the role?
No, not unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving under the listed rules [1].
What happens if the office holder dies while in the role?
The rules state that contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange [1].
Why does the contract show an end date in January 2027?
The provider lists an end date of 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z for the market [1]. The rules state that the market will close and expire early if the individual leaves the role as defined, so the listed date should not be read as an announced event date [1].
What does the contract resolve to if he returns to the role after leaving it?
The rules say that if the person vacates the role and then re-occupies it, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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