Assimi Goïta out as President of Mali by...?
PM $63.0K
1
2
Assimi Goïta out as President of Mali by...?
PM $63.0K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is June 30 at 32%.
Polymarket
- June 3032%
- December 313.8%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $63.0K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market resolves to “Yes” if Assimi Goïta’s departure as President of Mali is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The departure will be considered to be announced when Assimi Goïta, the Government of Mali, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Goïta has ceased or will cease to hold the position of President of Mali. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Assimi Goïta, and the Government of Mali; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The two contracts come from one Polymarket event and ask whether Assimi Goïta will be out as President of Mali by a set deadline. Under the rules quoted in the source, a "Yes" resolution requires that his departure be "officially announced" by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must come from Goïta, the Government of Mali, or their authorized representatives, and must be a "public and definitive" statement that he "has ceased or will cease to hold the position" [1]. The rules exclude temporary leaves, conditional statements, media reports of plans, and offers of resignation that remain pending [1].
The rules also set a timing condition. Announcements qualify only if the departure is "intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement" [1]. The two contracts differ only in deadline. One runs to June 30, 2027, and the other to December 31, 2026. Their listed end times, 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z and 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, correspond to those 11:59 PM ET cutoffs [1]. A listed end time is the close of the contract, not an event date, and it does not mean any departure is scheduled.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z, and this report retrieved the source at 2026-10-27T01:50:08.479Z [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The June 2027 contract shows Yes at 0.31 and No at 0.69. The December 2026 contract shows Yes at 0.0375 and No at 0.9625 [1]. The later deadline carries the higher Yes price, which is consistent with a longer window, but the snapshot does not explain why either price is where it is.
Both markets come from a single event, and the saved sample includes all of its markets. The sample notice states that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome [1]. Because only one platform is covered, no cross-platform comparison applies.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include current news about Mali's leadership, trading volume, the number of traders, or any announcement. It also does not say whether the snapshot still reflects prices today, since it was taken at a past moment. The contract wording is also more restrictive than a general question about departure. A resignation offer that is pending, or a report of a plan, would not count, so the price reflects the resolution criteria as well as expectations about events.
References
- Polymarket: Assimi Goïta out as President of Mali by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event titled "Assimi Goïta out as President of Mali by...?" The event has two saved contracts. One asks whether Assimi Goïta will be out as President of Mali by December 31, 2026, and the other asks the same question for June 30, 2027 [1]. Both contracts are binary, with Yes and No outcomes. The contract rules concern whether a departure is publicly announced, not whether the person physically leaves office on a particular date. The rules state that the market resolves to "Yes" if Goïta's departure as President of Mali is officially announced by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET, and otherwise to "No" [1]. An announcement can come from Goïta, the Government of Mali, or their authorized representatives. It qualifies even if the formal departure happens later. The rules also say that an announcement must be framed as a departure intended to take effect within 18 months of the announcement [1]. The listed end time for the June 2027 contract is 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z, and the December 2026 contract lists 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z [1]. These are contract closing times, not scheduled events. Several statements do not count under the rules. Temporary leaves of absence, dated or indefinite suspensions, and administrative leaves do not qualify. Neither do statements that a person is considering departure, conditional statements, pending or refused resignation offers, media reports of plans, jokes, or statements by others outside the authorized channels [1]. If Goïta ceases to hold the office before the end of a scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the rules allow resolution to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date [1]. The primary resolution sources named in the rules are official information from Goïta and the Government of Mali, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted [1].
Historical Context
Background from a 2026 Wikipedia article describes that since 25 April 2026, the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) carried out a series of joint coordinated attacks at multiple locations in Mali, and that the FLA took control of Kidal and parts of Gao. The same article states that in early October 2026 the FLA retreated from Kidal and the city came back under the control of the Malian army [2]. This is historical background from a Wikipedia article, not a verified current-events update, and the supplied material does not link these events to any announcement about Goïta's position.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether an official departure announcement occurs within a set window. It does not measure whether Goïta is performing well, whether he is likely to leave, or how much money is traded. Because the rules exclude temporary leaves, considered departures, and unconfirmed media reports, a contract can remain at No even amid heavy political coverage [1]. Readers should check the exact wording of announcements against the rules, since the definitions of qualifying and non-qualifying statements decide resolution [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a temporary leave of absence count as a departure?
No. The rules state that announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to duties do not qualify [1].
Does a statement that Goïta is considering leaving count?
No. The rules say that statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing do not qualify as public and definitive announcements [1].
Who can make a qualifying announcement?
The rules name Assimi Goïta, the Government of Mali, or their authorized representatives as those whose announcements qualify. Statements by other persons do not qualify, apart from the relevant authority governing the position or its authorized representatives [1].
Does the announced departure have to take effect by the market deadline?
No. The rules state that an announcement qualifies regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position, provided it is framed as a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the announcement [1].
What happens if Goïta leaves office without a qualifying announcement?
The rules say the market resolves to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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