Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by...?
PM $57.1K
1
1
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by...?
PM $57.1K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is October 31, 2026 at 2.9%.
Polymarket
- October 31, 20262.9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $57.1K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rodrigo Paz ceases to be President of Bolivia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Rodrigo Paz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market's timeframe, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Rodrigo Paz and the government of Bolivia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers one Polymarket contract, "Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by October 31, 2026?" [1]. The rules say the market "will resolve to "Yes" if Rodrigo Paz ceases to be President of Bolivia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z [1].
The wording matters. A brief removal from office during the window counts, not only removal that lasts through the end date. The rules also state that "An announcement of Rodrigo Paz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect" [1]. Detention or permanent inability to perform the duties of the office can also qualify [1]. The resolution source is "official information from Rodrigo Paz and the government of Bolivia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices are Yes at 0.0505 and No at 0.9495 [1]. The provider observed these at 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-23T02:50:56.178Z [1]. These are snapshots from those times, not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities. The two outcomes sum to 1.0000 in this record, but a snapshot of one contract does not show the depth or fill conditions a trader could get.
The sample includes one market from one event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. Because no other contracts are supplied, there is nothing to compare against. The sample does not show whether other outcomes or related contracts exist elsewhere, so no conclusion about a wider field should be drawn.
Volume data is not part of the supplied record, so this snapshot says nothing about trading activity or the number of participants.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the price is where it is, and it contains no recent news about Bolivia's government. It also does not show whether any official announcement has been made. Those facts would need separate sourcing.
The contract closes at the listed time. Its resolution depends on the rules and the sources named in them, not on the snapshot price. Readers should check the current contract page for any changes after the observation time.
References
- Polymarket: Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a yes-or-no question on whether Rodrigo Paz, president of Bolivia, will cease to hold that office for any period between market creation and October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET [1]. The provider lists the event as active, with an end time of 2026-11-01T03:59:00Z [1]. The contract is titled "Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by October 31, 2026?" and is one market within the event "Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by...?" on Polymarket [1]. The market's wording covers more than a formal departure. An announcement of Paz's resignation or removal before the end date would resolve the market to "Yes" immediately, even if the announced change takes effect later [1]. The rules also treat detention, effective removal, or a permanent inability to perform the duties of the office within the market's timeframe as qualifying for a "Yes" resolution [1]. The stated resolution source is official information from Paz and the government of Bolivia, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. Any question about whether an event qualifies would therefore turn on these listed sources and criteria rather than on general commentary. The current office-holder description comes from a Wikipedia article retrieved during this snapshot. That article describes Paz as a Bolivian politician and diplomat who has served as the 68th president of Bolivia since 2025 [2]. That is a reference description, not a live confirmation of his status at the time of reading.
Historical Context
The reference articles place Rodrigo Paz within a family with a record in Bolivian national office. His father, Jaime Paz Zamora, led Bolivia from 1989 to 1993 and had earlier served as vice president under Hernán Siles Zuazo [3]. Rodrigo Paz's own record includes local and legislative posts before the presidency, including his role representing the Revolutionary Left Movement (MIR) in the Chamber of Deputies from 2002 to 2010 [2]. These sources provide background only and do not describe the events that would bear on the market's outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Rodrigo Paz stops being president of Bolivia at any point before the listed end date [1]. Because a single period out of office is enough for a "Yes" outcome, the question is narrower than whether he remains in office on the end date itself [1]. The early-resolution rule means that a formal announcement of resignation or removal would settle the contract before the change takes effect [1]. The contract is therefore tied to specific legal and official events rather than to general political sentiment [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the market resolve Yes if Paz announces a resignation before the end date?
Yes. The rules state that an announcement of Rodrigo Paz's resignation or removal before the market's end date resolves the market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced change goes into effect [1].
Would a temporary absence from office count?
The rules say the market resolves "Yes" if Paz ceases to be President for any period of time between market creation and the specified date [1]. The source does not add further detail on how temporary absences would be assessed beyond that wording.
Who decides how the market resolves?
The stated resolution source is official information from Rodrigo Paz and the government of Bolivia. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Does the price show the chance that Paz will leave office?
The prices shown are market snapshots rather than verified probabilities or executable quotes, so they should not be read as a confirmed estimate of the likelihood of the outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Market Insights
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