30-year mortgage rate this week
K 52.2K contracts
1
20
30-year mortgage rate this week
K 52.2K contracts
1
20
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 7.22% at 72%.
Kalshi
- Above 7.22%72%
- Above 7.23%53.5%
- Above 7.24%33%
- Above 7.25%18.5%
- Above 7.26%10.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 52.2K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
20
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Oct 29, 2026 If the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 29, 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage national average published by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, PMMS, for Oct 29, 2026. For a standard Thursday publication, the weekly measurement period runs from 12:00 a.m. ET on the preceding Thursday through 11:59 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The resulting national average is published Thursday at 12:00 p.m. ET. This market will use Freddie Mac's first published PMMS value for the specified week. Subsequent corrections or revisions made after expiration will not affect resolution. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for the week of October 22, 2026 will be above a stated threshold. The rule names the underlying as the national average "published by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, PMMS, for Oct 22, 2026" [1]. The measurement period for a standard Thursday publication runs "from 12:00 a.m. ET on the preceding Thursday through 11:59 p.m. ET on Wednesday," and the figure is "published Thursday at 12:00 p.m. ET" [1]. The rule also says the market "will use Freddie Mac's first published PMMS value for the specified week" and that later corrections "will not affect resolution" [1].
Each threshold is a separate contract with its own Yes and No prices. Contracts also "will close and expire early if the economic data is released" [1], so the listed close time is not the only possible end point.
Reading the snapshot
The observation time is 06:00 UTC on October 20, 2026, and the source was retrieved at 07:21 UTC the same day [1]. These prices describe that moment only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Within this sample, the Yes price falls as the threshold rises. The Yes price is 0.98 for "above 7.23%" and 0.13 for "above 7.34%" [1]. The Yes price is near 0.49 at "above 7.31%" (0.485) [1]. Reading the prices as a rough distribution is possible, but the snapshot does not establish which outcome is more likely.
Only 12 of the 26 markets in this saved event were included [1]. The sample was ordered by Yes price, so the omitted thresholds are not evidence of lower or higher prices, and the included set should not be treated as the full field.
The listed end date in the market data is 2026-10-29 at 16:00 UTC, but the source states "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. Treat that timestamp as a field value in the snapshot, not an independently confirmed close.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the published PMMS value, so no contract outcome is known from it. It also does not explain why prices stand where they do, how many traders hold each view, or how the market has performed historically. Liquidity and trading volume are not provided in this interpretation, and no comparison with other platforms is possible from this snapshot.
References
- Kalshi: 30-year mortgage rate this week. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a binary market on the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for the week ending October 22, 2026. The market states that if that average is above a stated threshold, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The underlying figure is the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage national average published by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) [1]. The contract uses the first PMMS value published for the specified week, and later corrections or revisions do not affect resolution [1]. The measurement window for a standard Thursday publication runs from 12:00 a.m. ET on the preceding Thursday through 11:59 p.m. ET on Wednesday, and the national average is published on Thursday at 12:00 p.m. ET [1]. The contract also states that it will close and expire early if the relevant economic data is released [1]. The mortgage rate itself is a consumer borrowing cost. Mortgage calculators are tools used by consumers to determine monthly repayments, and they show how changes in variables such as the rate affect a home loan [2]. This context explains why a weekly national average rate is a common reference point, though the sources supplied here do not describe how that rate is set. The market records in this dataset are a snapshot taken at 06:00 UTC on October 20, 2026. They are not live quotes, and the contract's status at the time of this article's retrieval is covered by the dated status shown with it.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Freddie Mac PMMS national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, for the week tied to October 22, 2026, comes in above each stated threshold [1]. Because the rules name a single published value as the reference, the contract isolates one weekly national average rather than rates offered by individual lenders [1]. The market records in this dataset list thresholds from 7.23% to 7.34%. Their Yes prices fall as the threshold rises, from 0.98 at 7.23% to 0.13 at 7.34% [1]. These are snapshot prices from the saved data, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. A higher Yes price for one threshold does not establish an expectation about the actual rate. The sample is partial. The saved provider event lists 26 markets, and 12 are included here, selected by highest finite Yes price and then volume. Thresholds outside the included set are not shown, so their absence says nothing about their prices. Volume in these records measures trading activity, not liquidity or the number of traders.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Yes?
The market resolves Yes if the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for October 22, 2026 is above the threshold in that specific contract [1]. The average is the Freddie Mac PMMS national figure, using the first published value for the week [1].
When is the rate published?
Under the standard Thursday schedule, the national average is published on Thursday at 12:00 p.m. ET, after a measurement period running from the preceding Thursday through Wednesday at 11:59 p.m. ET [1].
Do later revisions change the result?
No. The rules state that subsequent corrections or revisions made after expiration will not affect resolution [1].
Can the contract close before the target date?
Yes. The rules state that the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1].
Does a price on this market mean the rate will be above a threshold?
No. The prices in the saved data are snapshots and are not verified probabilities or executable quotes, so they should not be read as a forecast of the published rate [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
