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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

Name: Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
End: 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$687.73

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Markets

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Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

Vol

$687.73

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $687.73

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $687.73

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	35%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	31%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	27%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	18%
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	10%
Will Rodina win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	8%
Will United Russia (ER) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

35%

Top Probability

$687.73

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties wi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 20, 2026 (72 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties wi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $688
* **Total Liquidity:** $80.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will United Russia (ER) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $61
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $69
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Civic Platform (GP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $127
  DATA: [Yes: 10.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $83
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $126
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Rodina win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $157
  DATA: [Yes: 7.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics