Name: Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

PredictPedia

Markets Wiki

Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30? | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.50M

Kalshi

markets · $121.65K

Price Spread

7.1%avg

max 17.5%

Arbitrage

of 4 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.62M

95%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

27 markets tracked

Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(4)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?ARB	20%	29%	10%
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?ARB	13%	19%	6%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	15%	15%	1%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?ARB	17%	12%	6%

Single-Platform Markets(23)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

52%

Top Probability

$2.62M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (350 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Israel and Indonesia normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occur"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.43M
* **Total Liquidity:** $14.54M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.10)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (24 mkts) vs Kalshi (11 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Israel and Indonesia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $9.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2026): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.4% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $338.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 11.4% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 14.5% spread between platforms.

### 3. Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $81.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 17.5% spread between platforms.

### 4. Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $435.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $13.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2026): Vol $789
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 11.0% spread between platforms.

### 5. Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $256.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $63.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Israel and Belize normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $24
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Israel and Colombia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Israel and Comoros normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Israel and Djibouti normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $307
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Israel and Maldives normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Israel and Mauritania normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $195
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Israel and Oman normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $7.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2026): Vol $507
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2026): Vol $49
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2026): Vol $39
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2026): Vol $192
  DATA: [Yes: 8.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.3% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2026): Vol $120
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2026): Vol $9.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2026): Vol $20
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Kuwait recognize Israel by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2026): Vol $735
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2026): Vol $660
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2026): Vol $204
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 27. Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $187.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Different

POLYMARKETPolitics

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume$1.53M

Markets2

POLYMARKETPolitics

Israel x Syria security agreement by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcement

Volume$419.76K

Markets3

27 of 27

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Israel and Colombia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 52.0¢No 48.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Israel and Colombia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

If Israel and Colombia normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

POLYMARKET

Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?

POLYMARKET

Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?

POLYMARKET

Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 46.0¢No 54.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?

POLYMARKET

Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30?

No related news found

Discussion

Community Discussion

Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!

Next Market Closes

165d 17h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

16¢

Polymarket

19¢

Kalshi

10¢ price gap

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/24MlKI" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?"></iframe>

Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Events (7)

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Israel x Syria security agreement by...?

Markets (4)

Will Israel and Colombia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Israel and Colombia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?

Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?

Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?

Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?

Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?

Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?

Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30?

Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Community Discussion

Next Market Closes

Market Insights

Platform Breakdown

Event Comparison

Event Comparison

Social Sentiment

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Share

Embed Widget