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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Best LLM at the end of the decade?

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Best LLM at the end of the decade?

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Kalshi

markets · $0.00

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0.0%avg

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34 markets tracked

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Google)

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Single-Platform Markets(34)

Market	Platform	Price
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Google)	Kalshi	17%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (OpenAI)	Kalshi	16%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Anthropic)	Kalshi	16%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (xAI)	Kalshi	8%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Meta)	Kalshi	6%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Z AI)	Kalshi	5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Xiaomi)	Kalshi	5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Tencent)	Kalshi	5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Moonshot)	Kalshi	5%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Mistral)	Kalshi	4%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (MiniMax)	Kalshi	4%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (DeepSeek)	Kalshi	4%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (NVIDIA)	Kalshi	3%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Alibaba)	Kalshi	3%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Microsoft)	Kalshi	3%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Huawei)	Kalshi	3%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (ByteDance)	Kalshi	3%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Upstage)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Thinking Machines)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (StepFun)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Safe Superintelligence)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Reflection AI)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Prime Intellect)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (LongCat)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (LG AI Research)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Inception)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (InclusionAI)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Institute of Foundation Models)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Essential AI)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Cohere)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (China Mobile)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Baidu)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Arcee AI)	Kalshi	2%
Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Amazon)	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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17%

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$0.00

Volume

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About This Event

Dec 31, 2029 at 10:00 AM ET If X has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default leaderboard is used, excluding preliminary or provisional scores. Only the ranking at the stated time counts; leading earlier does not. Ties follow the contract's tiebreakers. If the top model

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Best LLM at the end of the decade?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Dec 31, 2029 at 10:00 AM ET

If X has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default leaderboard is used, excluding preliminary or provisional scores. Only the ranking at the stated time counts; leading earlier does not. Ties follow the contract's tiebreakers. If the top model

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Z AI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default l"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Z AI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Xiaomi)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (xAI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Upstage)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Thinking Machines)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Tencent)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (StepFun)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Safe Superintelligence)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Reflection AI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Prime Intellect)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (OpenAI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (NVIDIA)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Mistral)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Microsoft)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Moonshot)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (MiniMax)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Meta)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (LongCat)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (LG AI Research)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Inception)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (InclusionAI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Institute of Foundation Models)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Huawei)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Google)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Essential AI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (DeepSeek)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Cohere)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 28. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (China Mobile)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 29. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (ByteDance)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Baidu)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 31. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Arcee AI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 32. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Anthropic)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 33. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Amazon)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 34. Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Alibaba)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Best LLM at the end of the decade?

Volume$0.00

Markets34

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KALSHI

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Google)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.0¢No 83.0¢

KALSHITech

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Google)

If Google has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default

KALSHI

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (OpenAI)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢

KALSHITech

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (OpenAI)

If OpenAI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default

KALSHI

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Anthropic)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢

KALSHIOther

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Anthropic)

If Anthropic has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The defa

KALSHI

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (xAI)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢

KALSHITech

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (xAI)

If xAI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default le

KALSHI

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Meta)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHITech

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Meta)

If Meta has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default l

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Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Google)

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Events (1)

Best LLM at the end of the decade?

Markets (34)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Google)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Google)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (OpenAI)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (OpenAI)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Anthropic)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Anthropic)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (xAI)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (xAI)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Meta)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Meta)

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Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Google)

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Best LLM at the end of the decade?

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Google)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Google)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (OpenAI)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (OpenAI)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Anthropic)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Anthropic)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (xAI)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (xAI)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Meta)

Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Meta)

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