Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win in 2026?

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$1.32K

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How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win in 2026?

Vol

$1.32K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.32K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.32K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	67%
Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	53%
Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	39%
Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	24%
Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 8 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	8%
Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 12 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	5%
Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 16 at the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

67%

Top Probability

$1.32K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

November 3, 2026 general election If the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas is at least X at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The 18 races counted are: U.S. Senator; Governor; Lieutenant Governor; Attorney General; Comptroller of Public Accounts; Commissioner, General Land Office; Commissioner, Agriculture; Railroad Commissioner; Chief Justice, Supreme Court; Justice, Supreme Court, Place 2, unexpired term; Justice, Supreme

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win in 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** November 3, 2026 general election

If the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas is at least X at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The 18 races counted are: U.S. Senator; Governor; Lieutenant Governor; Attorney General; Comptroller of Public Accounts; Commissioner, General Land Office; Commissioner, Agriculture; Railroad Commissioner; Chief Justice, Supreme Court; Justice, Supreme Court, Place 2, unexpired term; Justice, Supreme

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas is at least 8 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 18 races counted are: U.S. Senator; Governor; Lieutenant Governor; Attorney General; Comptroller of Public Accounts"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 8 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $26
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $856
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 16 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 12 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $425
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win in 2026?

Volume$1.32K

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KALSHI

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 67.0¢No 33.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas is at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 18 races counted are: U.S. Senator; Governor; Lieutenant Governor; Attorney General; Comptroller of Public Accounts

KALSHI

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 53.5¢No 46.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas is at least 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 18 races counted are: U.S. Senator; Governor; Lieutenant Governor; Attorney General; Comptroller of Public Accounts

KALSHI

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 39.0¢No 61.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas is at least 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 18 races counted are: U.S. Senator; Governor; Lieutenant Governor; Attorney General; Comptroller of Public Accounts

KALSHI

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas is at least 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 18 races counted are: U.S. Senator; Governor; Lieutenant Governor; Attorney General; Comptroller of Public Accounts

KALSHI

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 8 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 8 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas is at least 8 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 18 races counted are: U.S. Senator; Governor; Lieutenant Governor; Attorney General; Comptroller of Public Accounts

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28¢

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How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win in 2026?

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Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Events (1)

How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win in 2026?

Markets (7)

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 8 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 8 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win in 2026?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 8 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 8 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

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