Texas Senate margin of victory

This contract concerns the margin of victory for the Democratic Party in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas, which is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [2]. Each market asks whether that margin will reach a stated number of percentage points. The Republican nominee is state attorney general Ken Paxton and the Democratic nominee is state representative James Talarico [2]. The margin is calculated as the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate, party, or option that finishes immediately behind it if the Democrats win. If the Democrats lose, the margin is measured against the candidate or party that finishes first, and the result is negative [1]. A tie for first place produces a margin of 0 [1]. In an uncontested race where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin is set at 100 percentage points, or at the total number of votes cast for raw-vote contracts [1]. The threshold rules depend on exact boundaries. The provider states that each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, and that no rounding is applied to the calculated margin [1]. For example, a margin of 5.99999 percent falls in the 5 to 6 percent range, while a margin of exactly 6 percent falls in the 6 to 7 percent range [1]. The provider also states that votes attributable to the same underlying party are summed when the Democratic Party runs under multiple labels or is listed more than once [1]. The provider says the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. The saved event record lists an end date of November 3, 2027 for each market, but the event rules do not supply an end time [1]. That date is a field in the saved data and does not describe an announced resolution event. This saved event includes nine threshold markets, one for each whole-number margin from at least 1 point to at least 9 points. All saved markets for this event are included in the record, but the record does not show thresholds above 9 points, and their absence says nothing about their likelihood. The prices shown are provider snapshots from the saved record, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

Historical Context

Texas held a previous U.S. Senate election in 2018, on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the Senate. The Republican incumbent, Ted Cruz, won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic Congressman Beto O'Rourke. The primary for that race was held on March 6, 2018 [3]. The supplied sources do not provide results or margins from that race that would be needed to compare it with the 2026 contract ladder.

Frequently Asked Questions