Tainan Mayor Election Winner
PM $6.7K
1
4
Tainan Mayor Election Winner
PM $6.7K
1
4
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Chen Ting-fei at 89.5%.
Polymarket
- Chen Ting-fei89.5%
- Hsieh Lung-chieh6.3%
- Lin Yi-feng3%
- Lin Chun-hsien0.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $6.7K
Reported volume · provider units
4
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Tainan as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks which candidate becomes the next Mayor of Tainan. Taiwanese local elections are scheduled for November 28, 2026 [1]. Each saved contract is a separate yes or no question about one named candidate: Chen Ting-fei, Hsieh Lung-chieh, Lin Yi-feng, and Lin Chun-hsien [1]. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election do not count [1]. If the result is not known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That fallback outcome is not among the four saved contracts, so this snapshot shows no price for it.
The listed end time is 2026-11-29T04:59:00.000Z, the day after the scheduled election date [1]. This is a listing field, not an announced result date. The market resolves on a consensus of credible reporting, and if that is ambiguous, on official results from the Central Election Commission [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-16T04:14:28.814Z [1]. These are recorded values from that observation time, not live quotes or verified probabilities. The quoted Yes price for Chen Ting-fei's contract was 0.885, for Hsieh Lung-chieh's 0.0685, for Lin Yi-feng's 0.03, and for Lin Chun-hsien's 0.0055 [1]. Each contract lists its own Yes and No prices. Comparing the four Yes prices shows how the saved contracts were quoted relative to one another within this single provider event. It does not form a combined probability distribution.
The excerpt does not include volume, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many traders took part.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes all four saved markets for this event and is not marked as partial [1]. The source also states that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. Only one source was supplied, so these prices cannot be compared with other platforms. Contracts with different wording, close times, or resolution rules should not be treated as equivalent. The evidence gives no explanation for any price movement and no recent news. Nothing here indicates how the election will turn out, and the prices do not establish that outcome.
References
- Polymarket: Tainan Mayor Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks which candidate will become the next Mayor of Tainan, Taiwan, following the local elections. The provider's rules state that the market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Tainan as a result of this election [1]. The provider states that Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026 [1]. A separate background source describes the 2026 local elections as scheduled for 28 November 2026 to elect county magistrates, county (city) councilors, township mayors, township councilors and village chiefs in 6 municipalities and 16 counties (cities), with elected officials serving four-year terms [3]. The rules exclude temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election [1]. This means an appointed caretaker would not count as the winner. If the result is not known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The provider's listed end time for the contract is 2026-11-29T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is a contract closing time. It is not the date on which the election result is known, and the rules describe the election as scheduled for November 28, 2026 rather than announcing a result. Resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the rules say the market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission [1]. The contract therefore focuses on the official outcome of the election rather than on any single news report. Each market in this group asks whether a single named individual will win. The saved markets name Chen Ting-fei, Hsieh Lung-chieh, Lin Yi-feng and Lin Chun-hsien [1]. Their prices reflect trading activity on those contracts at the time of the snapshot, not a verified forecast of who will win.
Historical Context
Tainan, officially Tainan City, is a special municipality in southern Taiwan on the western coast facing the Taiwan Strait [2]. The background source describes it as the oldest city on the island, with a 263-year history as the capital of Taiwan under Dutch rule, the Kingdom of Tungning and later Qing dynasty rule until 1887 [2]. Its nickname, "the Phoenix City", reflects a history of comebacks, redefinitions and renewals [2]. These sources describe the city's past and the election schedule. They do not describe the current mayoral race beyond the market titles and contract rules.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which named individual, or any other person, will be recognized as the next Mayor of Tainan under the rules after the November 28, 2026 election [1]. Its value depends on the official or credibly reported result, and on the fallback to "Other" if no candidate is elected by June 30, 2027 [1]. Because the election covers a specific city office, the contract is narrower than the broader set of local offices up for election across Taiwan [3].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the Tainan mayoral election scheduled?
The provider states that Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026 [1]. A background source gives the same date for the 2026 local elections [3].
Which result does the contract use if the winner is not known by the deadline?
If the result is not known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other" [1].
Do appointed or temporary mayors count?
No. The rules state that temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered [1].
What source decides the outcome if reporting is unclear?
The rules say that if there is ambiguity, the market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission [1].
Does the listed end time mean the election result is known then?
No. The listed end time is a contract closing time [1]. The rules tie resolution to the election result and the sources described above, not to an announced result on that timestamp.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Hobart Lord Mayor election winner?
K 417.7 contracts
Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
K 48.4K contracts
Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner
PM $68.5K
Chiayi City Mayor Election Winner
PM $18.6K
Tainan mayoral election winner?
K 2.6K contracts
Kelowna mayoral election winner?
K 13.5K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
