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NJ-12 Democratic nominee?

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NJ-12 Democratic nominee?

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13 markets tracked

Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?	Kalshi	44%
Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?	Kalshi	16%
Will Verlina Reynolds-Jackson be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?	Kalshi	15%
Will Sam Wang be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?	Kalshi	15%
Will Jay Vaingankar be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?	Kalshi	6%
Will Brad Cohen be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?	Kalshi	6%
Will Shanel Robinson be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?	Kalshi	4%
Will Adrian Mapp be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?	Kalshi	3%
Will Sujit Sign be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?	Kalshi	2%
Will Squire Servance be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?	Kalshi	2%
Will Matt Adams be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?	Kalshi	2%
Will Kyle Little be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?	Kalshi	2%
Will Elijah Dixon be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?	Kalshi	2%

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44%

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About This Event

NJ-12 (D) If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NJ-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** NJ-12 Democratic nominee?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** NJ-12 (D)

If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NJ-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Verlina Reynolds-Jackson wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NJ-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Verlina Reynolds-Jackson wins the party's nomination."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Verlina Reynolds-Jackson be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Sam Wang be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Sujit Sign be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Squire Servance be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Shanel Robinson be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Matt Adams be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Kyle Little be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Jay Vaingankar be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Elijah Dixon be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Brad Cohen be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Adrian Mapp be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

NJ-12 Democratic nominee?

Volume$0.00

Markets13

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KALSHI

Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 44.5¢No 55.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

If Adam Hamawy wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NJ-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Adam Hamawy wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

If Sue Altman wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NJ-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Sue Altman wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will Verlina Reynolds-Jackson be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.0¢No 85.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Verlina Reynolds-Jackson be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

If Verlina Reynolds-Jackson wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NJ-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Verlina Reynolds-Jackson wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will Sam Wang be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.0¢No 85.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Sam Wang be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

If Sam Wang wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NJ-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Sam Wang wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will Jay Vaingankar be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jay Vaingankar be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

If Jay Vaingankar wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NJ-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Jay Vaingankar wins the party's nomination.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/3DhxcP" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="NJ-12 Democratic nominee?"></iframe>

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NJ-12 Democratic nominee?

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Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

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Events (1)

NJ-12 Democratic nominee?

Markets (13)

Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Verlina Reynolds-Jackson be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Verlina Reynolds-Jackson be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Sam Wang be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Sam Wang be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Jay Vaingankar be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Jay Vaingankar be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

NJ-12 Democratic nominee?

Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Verlina Reynolds-Jackson be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Verlina Reynolds-Jackson be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Sam Wang be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Sam Wang be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Jay Vaingankar be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Will Jay Vaingankar be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

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