ME-01 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
PM $15.8K
1
10
ME-01 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
PM $15.8K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 25-30% at 29%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 25-30%29%
- Democrat 30-35%23%
- Democrat 5-15%13.5%
- Democrat 35-40%7.8%
- Democrat 40-45%4.7%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $15.8K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The first round of the 2026 ME-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 ME-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contracts in this snapshot come from one Polymarket event, "ME-01 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)" [1]. The margin is defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Most contracts are margin brackets for the Democratic candidate, such as "Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 30%-35%?" The separate "Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election?" contract is a win contract, not a margin bracket [1].
The rules include several details that affect how a bracket resolves. A value that falls "exactly between two brackets" resolves "to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Ties follow specific tiebreak rules, and the market resolves to "Other" if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The source states the first round "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a contract closing time, not a confirmed result date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z. The source was retrieved at 2026-10-17T14:48:18.044Z [1]. These prices describe that observation and are not live quotes.
Within the saved sample, the highest Yes prices are for the 30% to 35% bracket at 0.29 and the 25% to 30% bracket at 0.21 [1]. The 40% to 45% bracket is at 0.177, the 35% to 40% bracket at 0.13, and the 5% to 15% bracket at 0.119 [1]. The 45% or more bracket is at 0.0545, the Republican win contract at 0.0085, and the 0% to 5% bracket at 0.004 [1].
These are Yes-side snapshot prices from a single event. They should not be read as verified probabilities. Each contract is priced separately, so price differences between contracts are not an arbitrage signal by themselves.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record shows 10 total markets, 10 included, and no partial sample [1]. The source also states that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. No 10% to 15% bracket appears in the saved list, so this snapshot does not provide a price for that range, and no conclusion should be drawn about it.
The evidence does not include trading volume, liquidity, trader counts, or reasons for any price movement. It also does not confirm whether the election has occurred or what its results are.
References
- Polymarket: ME-01 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round). Provider data observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCAI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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