GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

ME-01 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Name: ME-01 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
End: 2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$565.04

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ME-01 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Vol

$565.04

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $565.04

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $565.04

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 20%-25%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 20%-25%?	Poly	21%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 5%-15%?	Poly	21%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 40%-45%?	Poly	19%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 45% or more?	Poly	18%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 25%-30%?	Poly	18%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 15%-20%?	Poly	14%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 30%-35%?	Poly	14%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 0%-5%?	Poly	9%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election?	Poly	2%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 35%-40%?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

21%

Top Probability

$565.04

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The first round of the 2026 ME-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid vote

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** ME-01 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (59 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The first round of the 2026 ME-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid vote

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 ME-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid v"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $565
* **Total Liquidity:** $45.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 45% or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $57
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 40%-45%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $46
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 35%-40%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $36
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 30%-35%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $46
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 25%-30%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $52
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 20%-25%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $57
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 15%-20%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $46
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 5%-15%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $63
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 0%-5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $46
  DATA: [Yes: 8.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.1% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $116
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics

ME-01 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Volume$565.04

Markets10

10 of 10

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 20%-25%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 20%-25%?

The 2026 ME-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid v

POLYMARKET

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 5%-15%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 5%-15%?

POLYMARKET

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 40%-45%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 19.0¢No 81.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 40%-45%?

POLYMARKET

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 45% or more?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 45% or more?

POLYMARKET

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 25%-30%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 25%-30%?

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