The question of whether any member of Congress will be expelled before 2027 touches on the most severe disciplinary power the U.S. Constitution grants to the House of Representatives and the Senate. Expulsion requires a two-thirds vote in the chamber where the member serves, and it has been used only 20 times in the history of the U.S. Congress: 15 in the Senate and 5 in the House. Most expulsions occurred during the Civil War era for disloyalty, with the last expulsion of a sitting member happening in 2002 when Representative James Traficant was expelled after being convicted of corruption charges. Since then, no member has been expelled, though several have faced calls for expulsion following criminal indictments or ethical scandals. In recent years, the political climate has intensified around questions of member conduct. The January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol led to the second impeachment of President Donald Trump and also sparked expulsion resolutions against several Republican members who spoke at the rally before the attack. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene faced resolutions to expel her for past social media posts and comments, but the House did not vote on expulsion. Instead, the House voted to remove her from committee assignments. The Senate has not expelled a member since 1862, when it expelled Senator John C. Breckinridge for supporting the Confederacy. The threshold for expulsion is deliberately high. The Constitution's expulsion clause (Article I, Section 5) states that "Each House may determine the Rules of its Proceedings, punish its Members for disorderly Behaviour, and, with the Concurrence of two thirds, expel a Member." This high bar means that even members convicted of serious crimes often remain in office. Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska continued serving after his 2008 corruption conviction (later vacated) and lost his reelection bid. Representative William Jefferson of Louisiana served until 2009 despite a 2009 bribery conviction. The pattern suggests that conviction alone rarely triggers expulsion; instead, the member usually resigns, is defeated in a primary or general election, or completes their term before legal proceedings conclude. Interest in this topic has grown as the 118th Congress has seen multiple members indicted or convicted. Representative George Santos was expelled in December 2023 after a House Ethics Committee report found substantial evidence of fraud and campaign finance violations. That expulsion, the first since Traficant in 2002, shows that the bar may be shifting. In the Senate, Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey was indicted in September 2023 on bribery charges and faces calls for resignation or expulsion. As of early 2025, Menendez has not been expelled. The 2026 election cycle will bring additional scrutiny to members facing legal troubles, and the possibility of further expulsions remains a topic of active debate among political observers and legal scholars.

Historical Context

The power to expel members of Congress dates to the First Congress in 1789, but it has been used sparingly. The first expulsion occurred in 1797 when the House expelled Representative Matthew Lyon of Vermont for spitting on a fellow member and refusing to pay a fine. The Senate's first expulsion came in 1811 when it expelled Senator John Smith of Ohio for involvement in the Burr conspiracy. These early cases set the precedent that expulsion required serious misconduct, not mere political disagreement. The most active period for expulsions was the Civil War era. Between 1861 and 1862, the Senate expelled 14 members for supporting the Confederacy. The House expelled three members during the same period. After the war, expulsion became extremely rare. The House expelled Representative Michael J. O'Brien of Michigan in 1882 for selling appointments to the Naval Academy. The next expulsion did not occur until 1980 when Representative Michael Myers of Pennsylvania was expelled for his role in the Abscam bribery scandal. Myers became the first member expelled for corruption rather than disloyalty. Between 1980 and 2002, the House expelled two more members: Representative James Traficant of Ohio in 2002 for corruption and Representative George Santos in 2023 for ethics violations. The Senate has not expelled a member since 1862, though several have come close. Senator Harrison Williams of New Jersey resigned in 1982 after the Senate Ethics Committee recommended expulsion for his role in Abscam. Senator David Durenberger of Minnesota was denounced by the Senate in 1990 for ethics violations but was not expelled. The pattern shows that the Senate prefers to let members leave through resignation or electoral defeat rather than exercising its expulsion power.