GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026?

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Rain in NYC in Jul 2026?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

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4 markets tracked

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inches)

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inches)	Kalshi	100%
Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)	Kalshi	98%
Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 3 inches)	Kalshi	88%
Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 4 inches)	Kalshi	63%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

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About This Event

In Jul 2026 If the total precipitation at Central Park, New York City in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than X inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Rain in NYC in Jul 2026?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Jul 2026

If the total precipitation at Central Park, New York City in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than X inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the total precipitation at Central Park, New York City in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 4 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 4 inches)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 3 inches)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inches)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets4

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KALSHI

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inches)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHITech

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inches)

If the total precipitation at Central Park, New York City in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 1 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHITech

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)

If the total precipitation at Central Park, New York City in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 2 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 3 inches)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

KALSHITech

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 3 inches)

If the total precipitation at Central Park, New York City in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 3 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 4 inches)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.5¢No 37.5¢

KALSHITech

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 4 inches)

If the total precipitation at Central Park, New York City in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 4 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/4ATSCc" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Rain in NYC in Jul 2026?"></iframe>

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Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inches)

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Events (1)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026?

Markets (4)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inches)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inches)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 3 inches)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 3 inches)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 4 inches)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 4 inches)

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Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inches)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026?

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inches)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inches)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 3 inches)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 3 inches)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 4 inches)

Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? (Above 4 inches)

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