WI-06 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $16.0K
1
8
WI-06 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $16.0K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 10-15% at 33.5%.
Polymarket
- Republican 10-15%33.5%
- Republican 5-10%22.5%
- Republican 0-5%12.8%
- Republican 15-20%12.7%
- Republican 20-25%8.6%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $16.0K
Reported volume · provider units
8
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0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 WI-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied market group resolves on the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2026 WI-06 House election. The rules define margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1].
Most listed contracts ask whether the Republican Party candidate wins by a specified range, such as "by 5%-10%" or "by 30% or more" [1]. One contract asks a different question: whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the election [1]. These are not interchangeable, so the Democratic contract should not be read as the complement of a single margin bracket.
The rules also specify how boundary values and ties are handled. A reported value that falls exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher bracket [1]. The rules state that the market resolves "based on the official vote count once the count has been made official" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules say the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026," so the listed end time is a close time, not the election date [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T23:21:41.292Z [1]. These prices describe that observation only and may have changed since.
The sample includes all 8 markets saved for this event, and the sample is not marked partial [1]. Among the Republican margin brackets, the highest Yes price is for "by 5%-10%" at 0.245, followed by "by 10%-15%" at 0.24 [1]. The "by 0%-5%" bracket is at 0.1495 and the "by 30% or more" bracket is at 0.0335 [1]. The Democratic win contract is at 0.0305 [1].
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices across the eight contracts sum to about 1.05, so they should not be read as a complete probability distribution.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not show how many traders hold each position. Volume data is not included in this snapshot's interpretation and would not indicate liquidity.
The rules allow resolution by June 30, 2027, after which unresolved cases would resolve to "Other" [1]. A recount that is initiated before the vote is official would keep the market open until completion [1]. The rules also name the state electoral authority's certified results as the primary source, with consensus reporting as a secondary option [1].
References
- Polymarket: WI-06 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This market concerns the 2026 election for Wisconsin's 6th congressional district in the U.S. House. The provider describes the election as currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. A separate Wikipedia overview states that the 2026 U.S. House elections in Wisconsin will be held on that date to elect the state's eight representatives, one from each congressional district, and that the primary took place on August 11, 2026 [2]. The contract does not ask which candidate wins by a particular total. It resolves on the margin of victory, which the provider defines as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1]. Because the measure uses an absolute difference, the margin is the same whichever party finishes first. The event is organized into margin brackets, such as 0% to 5%, 5% to 10%, and 30% or more, along with a separate contract about whether the Democratic Party candidate wins [1]. Each bracket is its own yes or no contract. A reported margin that falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. The contract also sets rules for unusual cases. Candidates are named only for traders' convenience. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. Independent candidates do not count as Democratic or Republican options [1]. If two candidates tie for the most valid votes, the provider uses ballot-listed last names in alphabetical order to decide which bracket applies, with separate rules when one tied candidate is unlisted [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount finishes and the result is certified [1].
Historical Context
The Wisconsin House elections are part of a statewide cycle in which each of the state's eight congressional districts elects one representative. The Wikipedia overview reports that the primary election took place on August 11, 2026, and that the November general election will coincide with other House, Senate, and state and local races [2]. The sources supplied for this market do not identify the candidates in the 6th district or describe the district's prior election results, so this background is limited to the election calendar.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how decisive the 6th district race is, not simply which party wins. Because the margin is calculated from the share of valid votes for the top two finishers, a narrow race and a wide race can produce very different bracket outcomes even when the same party wins [1]. The primary resolution source is the official result published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The provider states that the contract resolves once the count has been made official [1]. The listed end time for the event is November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1]. That date is a provider field for when the market closes and is not a statement that results will be announced at that time. The provider also states that if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the margin of victory measure?
It measures the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates in the election [1]. Each percentage is based on the total valid votes cast in the election, not on the number of voters who turned out [1].
What happens if the margin falls exactly between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
Do independent candidates count as options in the Democratic or Republican contracts?
No. The provider states that independent candidates do not represent options for either party, and that Democratic and Republican nominees represent those options [1].
What happens if a candidate is replaced before election day?
The contract name is updated, and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of that party [1].
What happens if a recount is requested?
If a recount is initiated before the vote total is official, the market remains open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
What happens if the results are still unknown by the deadline?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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