GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

WI-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Name: WI-03 House Election Margin of Victory
End: 2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.18K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

WI-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Vol

$2.18K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.18K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.18K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 0%-3%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 0%-3%?	Poly	16%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 0%-3%?	Poly	14%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 6%-9%?	Poly	13%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 3%-6%?	Poly	12%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 3%-6%?	Poly	6%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 9%-12%?	Poly	5%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 12% or more?	Poly	5%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 12% or more?	Poly	4%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 9%-12%?	Poly	4%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 6%-9%?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

16%

Top Probability

$2.18K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 WI-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** WI-03 House Election Margin of Victory
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (59 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The 2026 WI-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 WI-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid v"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $58.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 12% or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $136
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 9%-12%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $216
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 6%-9%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $189
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 3%-6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $224
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 0%-3%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $514
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 0%-3%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $223
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 3%-6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $167
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 6%-9%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $236
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 9%-12%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $167
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 12% or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $105
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics