WI-08 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $22.2K
1
10
WI-08 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $22.2K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 9-12% at 20.8%.
Polymarket
- Republican 9-12%20.8%
- Republican 12-15%18.3%
- Republican 6-9%18%
- Republican 0-3%17%
- Republican 3-6%12.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $22.2K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 WI-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event "WI-08 House Election Margin of Victory" resolves on the absolute difference between the vote percentages of the top two candidates in the 2026 WI-08 House election [1]. Each contract covers one bracket of that margin. Candidates are represented as "Democrat" or "Republican" according to their party nominations, and independent candidates do not count as either option [1].
The wording includes several rules that affect how a bracket resolves. If the reported margin falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket [1]. Ties are handled by a ballot-listed last name rule, and an unresolved tie between two or more unlisted candidates resolves to "Other" [1]. The primary resolution source is the official certified result, though "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The source states the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026," and gives a listed end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That end time is a listed close, not a confirmed result date.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:21:50Z [1]. They describe that moment only and are not live quotes or executable prices. Ten markets are included, and the coverage record reports all ten as included from a total of ten, with no partial sample [1].
The highest "Yes" price is 0.2055 for a Republican win by 9% to 12%, followed by 0.19 for 6% to 9% and 0.185 for 3% to 6% [1]. The Democratic brackets carry the lowest values, at 0.0275 for a Democratic win by 3% or more and 0.024 for a Democratic win by 0% to 3% [1].
The "Yes" prices sum to roughly 1.089. Because these are independent snapshots of separate contracts, they should not be read as a probability distribution, and the excess above 1 is not a verified mispricing. Differences between contracts are not an arbitrage signal from this evidence. The source does not explain why any price is where it is, and this analysis does not offer a reason.
What remains uncertain
The evidence contains one provider and one event, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The sample warning notes that the saved markets do not establish that every real-world outcome is listed [1]. Volume and trader counts are not in the supplied data, so the prices cannot be connected to liquidity or to how many people hold a view. Whether the election results will be certified, and when, is outside the evidence.
References
- Polymarket: WI-08 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract concerns the margin of victory in the 2026 election for Wisconsin's 8th congressional district, a U.S. House race. The contract resolves on the gap between the top two candidates' shares of valid votes. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2]. Wisconsin's eight U.S. House seats are all up in that election, which coincides with U.S. Senate, state, and local races [2]. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Because the measure uses absolute difference, it does not indicate which party finished ahead. Winning direction is handled separately within each bracket. The contract's options are framed by party. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not count as either option [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves on the replacement nominee [1]. The contract's primary resolution source is the official results of the election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certification. Reporting by an overwhelming consensus of credible outlets may also be used [1]. The market resolves on the official count once it has been made official. If a recount begins before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount ends and the vote is certified [1]. The Wisconsin House primary took place on August 11, 2026 [2]. That is past background for the general election, not an update on the current race.
Historical Context
The Wisconsin House primary took place on August 11, 2026, ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election [2]. The general election is one of several contests on the same ballot in Wisconsin that year, including the gubernatorial race, which the supplied sources describe as scheduled for the same date [2][3]. These sources do not supply the WI-08 nominees or prior results for the district.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how close the 2026 WI-08 House race will be, expressed as the percentage-point gap between the top two candidates' shares of valid votes [1]. Each bracket covers a range of that gap, and the Republican and Democratic brackets are listed separately [1]. A bracket on the Republican side describes a Republican win by a given margin, while a bracket on the Democratic side describes a Democratic win by a given margin. The bracket rules settle boundary cases in a specific way. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Ties are handled by alphabetical order of ballot-listed last names, or by an "Other" outcome when the tie involves only unlisted candidates [1]. The contract also resolves to "Other" if results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The saved market set for this event includes ten Polymarket brackets, and all of them are included in the sample [1]. Prices shown alongside the contract are snapshots of the market at one moment and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the WI-08 House election held?
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2]. The contract's listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, which is a market closing timestamp rather than a result announcement date [1].
How is the margin of victory calculated?
It is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated against the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if a candidate is replaced before election day?
The name in the contract is updated, and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
What happens if the result falls exactly between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
Does an independent candidate count as an option?
No. Independent candidates do not represent options for either party in this market [1].
What happens if a recount is requested?
If a recount is started before the vote total is official, the market remains open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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