Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US nominal GDP growth in 2033

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US nominal GDP growth in 2033

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

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0.0%avg

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13 markets tracked

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.0%?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.0%?	Kalshi	95%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.5%?	Kalshi	92%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.0%?	Kalshi	87%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.5%?	Kalshi	83%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 2.0%?	Kalshi	77%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 2.5%?	Kalshi	71%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 3.0%?	Kalshi	64%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 3.5%?	Kalshi	58%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 4.0%?	Kalshi	52%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 4.5%?	Kalshi	46%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 5.0%?	Kalshi	39%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 5.5%?	Kalshi	33%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 6.0%?	Kalshi	27%

AI Analysis

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95%

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About This Event

2033 If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2033 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the 2033 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “GDP, Advance Estimate, 4th Quarter and Year 2033,” or its equivalent successor publication. The value will be taken as reported by BEA, in percentage terms and to the precision published by BEA. Subsequent estimates,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US nominal GDP growth in 2033
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2033

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2033 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the 2033 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “GDP, Advance Estimate, 4th Quarter and Year 2033,” or its equivalent successor publication. The value will be taken as reported by BEA, in percentage terms and to the precision published by BEA. Subsequent estimates,

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2033 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2033 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 6.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2034): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 5.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2034): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 5.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2034): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 4.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2034): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 4.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2034): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 3.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2034): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 3.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2034): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 64.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 2.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2034): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 2.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2034): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2034): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2034): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 87.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2034): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2034): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US nominal GDP growth in 2033

Volume$0.00

Markets13

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KALSHI

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.0¢No 5.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.0%?

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2033 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2033 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G

KALSHI

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.0¢No 8.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.5%?

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2033 is above 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2033 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G

KALSHI

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.0¢No 13.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.0%?

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2033 is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2033 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G

KALSHI

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.0¢No 17.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.5%?

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2033 is above 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2033 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G

KALSHI

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 2.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.0¢No 23.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 2.0%?

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2033 is above 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2033 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G

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US nominal GDP growth in 2033

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Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.0%?

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Events (1)

US nominal GDP growth in 2033

Markets (13)

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 2.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 2.0%?

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Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.0%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US nominal GDP growth in 2033

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 0.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 1.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 2.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2033 be above 2.0%?

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