Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)

Total Volume

$34.76K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)

Vol

$34.76K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $34.76K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $34.76K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?	Kalshi	96%
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?	Kalshi	92%
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?	Kalshi	86%
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points?	Kalshi	65%
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points?	Kalshi	41%
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 11 percentage points?	Kalshi	24%
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 12 percentage points?	Kalshi	21%
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 14 percentage points?	Kalshi	3%
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 16 percentage points?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$34.76K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Democratic minus Republican national House popular vote margin If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least X percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidate

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Democratic minus Republican national House popular vote margin

If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least X percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidate

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 11 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote perce"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $34.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 11 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $8.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 65.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $7.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 16 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $580
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 14 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $329
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 12 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $9.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)

Volume$34.76K

Markets9

9 of 9

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?

If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 2 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percen

KALSHI

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.0¢No 8.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?

If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 4 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percen

KALSHI

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?

If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percen

KALSHI

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.0¢No 35.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points?

If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 8 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percen

KALSHI

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 41.0¢No 59.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points?

If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote perce

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

48¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/4b5-is" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)

Markets (9)

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points?

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget