Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T03:00:06.023Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied event is "Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)" on Kalshi [1]. Its rule says that if "the number of transit calls through the Suez Canal as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above X from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The total is the sum of daily counts for that period. The source also says the market "will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available" [1].

The sample contains eight threshold markets, each asking whether transit calls will exceed a different number, from 260 to 330 [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract, so the markets are not alternative outcomes of one question and their prices should not be summed or averaged.

Reading the snapshot

The saved observation time is 2026-10-25T03:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-25T04:50:28Z [1]. The prices below describe that observation only. They are not live quotes and are not verified probabilities.

At the observed time, the Yes prices were:

• Above 260: 0.925
• Above 270: 0.87
• Above 280: 0.74
• Above 290: 0.565
• Above 300: 0.37
• Above 310: 0.225
• Above 320: 0.095
• Above 330: 0.065

The prices fall as the threshold rises, which is what the wording would lead a reader to expect. The snapshot does not explain why any price was set, and it does not show how many traders hold each view. Volume is also not included as a measure of liquidity here.

The provider lists an endDate of 2027-02-01T15:00:00.000Z for every market [1]. That field is not the same as the resolution timing stated in the rules. The excerpt also says the "Listed end time: not supplied." A reader should rely on the rule text for the resolution process and treat the endDate as a provider field that needs separate checking.

What remains uncertain

The sample includes all eight saved markets for this event, and the record marks it as not partial [1]. The sample warning still says this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Any threshold absent from the list cannot be assumed to have a particular price.

The evidence does not include the actual transit counts, any post-observation prices, or whether the market has closed or resolved. Because the snapshot was taken on 2026-10-25, a later reader should not treat these figures as the current market state.

References

1. Kalshi: Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1). Provider data observed 2026-10-25T03:00:06.023Z.