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Events
GroupKALSHI

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)
Vol

K 16.8K contracts

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Events

1

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Markets

9

Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 15 at 93.5%.

Kalshi

  1. Above 1593.5%
  2. Above 2070.5%
  3. Above 2354.5%
  4. Above 2544.5%
  5. Above 2730.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 16.8K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

9

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

10/26 - 11/1 If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above X from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Related prediction markets

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiTech
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)

K 11.5K contracts
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 3 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026?Yes 94.5%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026?Yes 78.5%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026?Yes 70.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Feb 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

PM $19.60M · K 10.77M contracts

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 11.5%Rules differK Yes 8.3%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 0.5%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 0.1%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
KalshiTech
Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/26 - 11/1)

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/26 - 11/1)

K 253 contracts
Will October 31 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/26 - 11/1)?Yes 14.5%
Will October 30 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/26 - 11/1)?Yes 14.5%
Will October 29 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/26 - 11/1)?Yes 14.5%
+4 moreNext deadline Feb 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)

K 59.7K contracts
Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026?Yes 94.5%
Will there be more than 160 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026?Yes 92.5%
Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026?Yes 89.5%
+8 moreNext deadline Feb 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?

How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?

K 204.6K contracts
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 30 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 19%
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 16%
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 11.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Apr 5, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)

K 82.4K contracts
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 3 from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026?Yes 97.5%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026?Yes 93.5%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026?Yes 86.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Jan 25, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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