Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?

Name: Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
End: 2027-01-02T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$22.91K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?

Vol

$22.91K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $22.91K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $22.91K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?	Poly	78%
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be below 4,189.3 ft?	Poly	13%
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?	Poly	6%
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.7 ft or more?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

78%

Top Probability

$22.91K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 2, 2027 (83 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".

The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geol"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $22.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.43)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be below 4,189.3 ft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $11.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.7 ft or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate