GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

How low will Lake Powell drop?

Name: How low will Lake Powell drop?
End: 2027-04-15T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$13.19K

Events

Markets

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How low will Lake Powell drop?

Vol

$13.19K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $13.19K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.19K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?	Poly	55%
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	Poly	39%
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft?	Poly	5%
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

55%

Top Probability

$13.19K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevat

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How low will Lake Powell drop?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 15, 2027 (223 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.

Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.

The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevat

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 3,510.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."

Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake P"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.62)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 15, 2027): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 15, 2027): Vol $6.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 15, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 15, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate

How low will Lake Powell drop?

Volume$13.19K

Markets4

4 of 4

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 54.5¢No 45.5¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 3,510.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake P

POLYMARKET

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 39.0¢No 61.0¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?

This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,510.00 feet but does not fall below 3,500.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest dail

POLYMARKET

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft?

This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,500.00 feet but does not fall below 3,490.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest dail

POLYMARKET

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 3.9¢No 96.1¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?

This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,490.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 3,490 feet is the minimum power pool elevation below which Glen Can

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Next Market Closes

222d 1h remaining

Apr 15, 2027 11:59 PM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

25¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/_QmZIa" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How low will Lake Powell drop?"></iframe>

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How low will Lake Powell drop?

How low will Lake Powell drop?

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Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

How low will Lake Powell drop?

Markets (4)

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?

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Discussion

Next Market Closes

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How low will Lake Powell drop?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Closes

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