Avocado advertised prices this week
K 318.24 contracts
1
11
Avocado advertised prices this week
K 318.24 contracts
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above $0.70 at 94%.
Kalshi
- Above $0.7094%
- Above $0.8085%
- Above $0.9047%
- Above $1.0016%
- Above $1.106%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 318.24 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
November 13, 2026 If the “This Week” weighted average advertised price for Avocados, Hass, each, as reported in the USDA AMS Weekly Grocery Store Specialty Crops Feature Activity report scheduled for publication on November 13, 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. This market uses advertised retail prices, not transaction prices. The relevant value is the “This Week” Wtd Avg Price for the row with Commodity “Avocados,” Variety “Hass,” and Unit “each” in the National Conventional Summary section of the USDA AMS Weekly Grocery Store Specialty Crops Feature Activity report. Prices for other avocado varieties, sizes, package counts, organic avocados, regional tables, “Last Week,” or “Last Year” do not count. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-12T15:00:05.990Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi market asks whether the "This Week" weighted average advertised price for Avocados, Hass, each, for November 13, 2026 will be above a stated threshold [1]. The value comes from the Avocados, Hass, each row in the National Conventional Summary section of a USDA AMS Weekly Grocery Store Specialty Crops Feature Activity report scheduled for publication on November 13, 2026 [1]. The source says the market uses advertised retail prices, not transaction prices, and that other varieties, sizes, package counts, organic avocados, regional tables, "Last Week," and "Last Year" figures do not count [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract, so the exact wording of each row matters.
The close time is unclear. The market records list an end date of 2026-11-21T01:30:00.000Z, but the source excerpt says the listed end time is not supplied and that the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. The evidence does not establish when trading ends or when resolution occurs.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-11-12T15:00:05.990Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-13T02:51:15.103Z [1]. These describe a saved snapshot, not a live reading. The provider status was recorded as active [1].
Quoted Yes prices fall as thresholds rise. The above $0.70 contract shows 0.945, above $0.80 shows 0.84, above $0.90 shows 0.47, above $1.00 shows 0.165, and above $1.10 shows 0.055 [1]. Thresholds from $1.20 to $1.70 show Yes prices of 0.04 or lower, with the $1.40, $1.50, $1.60, and $1.70 contracts each at 0.025 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The sample includes all 11 saved markets for this event, and partialSample is false [1]. This applies only to the saved provider event. The source notes that it does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. Volume is not supplied, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the published USDA figure, so it cannot show how any threshold was resolved. The excerpt does not explain why prices are where they are. Only one provider appears, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Because the close time is unclear and an early close is possible, readers should check the official listing and the USDA report directly.
References
- Kalshi: Avocado advertised prices this week. Provider data observed 2026-11-12T15:00:05.990Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 13, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event titled "Avocado advertised prices this week." The contract is tied to one weekly figure in the USDA AMS Weekly Grocery Store Specialty Crops Feature Activity report, which the source says is scheduled for publication on November 13, 2026 [1]. The market asks whether the "This Week" weighted average advertised price for Avocados, Hass, each, in that report, is above a stated threshold. If it is, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The contract uses advertised retail prices, not transaction prices [1]. The relevant value is the row for Commodity "Avocados," Variety "Hass," and Unit "each" in the National Conventional Summary section of the report [1]. Other avocado varieties, sizes, package counts, organic avocados, regional tables, the "Last Week" figure, and the "Last Year" figure do not count [1]. The event is separate from the threshold ladder. Each threshold, such as $0.70, $0.90, or $1.00, is a distinct contract on the same underlying figure. Their prices can differ because each one asks a different question, so a difference between two thresholds is not by itself an opportunity to trade against one another. Timing matters for this contract. The source notes that the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. The listed end time is recorded in the source as not supplied [1], so the saved market data should not be read as a confirmed resolution time.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a specific retail price signal: the weekly weighted average advertised price for conventional Hass avocados, each, in one national summary table [1]. Because it reflects advertised prices rather than transaction prices, it describes what retailers advertise in that report, not what shoppers actually paid [1]. The narrow row definition means that organic, bagged or packaged, regional, prior-week, and prior-year figures do not determine the outcome [1]. Anyone reading a price snapshot should keep in mind that prices shown at a given time are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-12 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly determines whether the market resolves to Yes?
The market resolves to Yes if the "This Week\" weighted average advertised price for Avocados, Hass, each, in the National Conventional Summary section of the USDA AMS report is above the stated threshold [1]. The report is scheduled for publication on November 13, 2026 [1].
Does the contract use the prices people actually pay?
No. The market uses advertised retail prices, not transaction prices [1].
Which avocado figures are excluded?
Prices for other avocado varieties, sizes, package counts, organic avocados, regional tables, the "Last Week" figure, and the "Last Year" figure do not count [1].
Could the market close before the scheduled report date?
The market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. The listed end time is recorded as not supplied in the source [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
