This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event titled "US gas prices this week." The contract asks whether the average regular gasoline price for the United States will be strictly greater than a stated threshold X on November 16, 2026, according to AAA. If the AAA figure is above the threshold on that date, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The event is listed as active by its provider, and the provider rules do not supply a listed end time [1]. The rules tie resolution to a specific date and a specific published price source, not to the market's closing time. Market data for the event lists an end date of November 23, 2026 at 15:00 UTC for each included threshold [1]. That field is a listed closing time for trading and should not be read as the date on which the price is measured. The measurement date named in the rules is November 16, 2026. Each threshold is a separate yes or no question. For example, one market asks whether the average price will be above $3.80, and another asks about $3.82, $3.84, and higher levels [1]. A Yes price near 1 means the snapshot showed the market pricing a high likelihood that the threshold would be exceeded. A Yes price near 0 means the opposite. These are snapshot prices from trading platforms, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the volume figures attached to markets are not a measure of liquidity or the number of traders. The market sample shown here is partial. The saved provider event contains 26 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The included markets were chosen by ordering finite Yes prices from highest to lowest, with volume as a secondary sort [1]. The included set therefore covers the higher-priced thresholds in the event, and the omitted markets are not described here. Prices from separate provider events should not be compared or ranked together.

Historical Context

Background sources describe general factors in gasoline pricing, including crude oil prices, processing and distribution costs, local demand, taxation, and supply availability. They note that fuels are traded worldwide, so trade prices tend to be similar, while consumer prices largely reflect national pricing policy [2]. A separate background article describes the 2026 Iran war fuel crisis, in which the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure led to large disruption in global oil supplies and rising oil prices [3]. These articles were retrieved on November 11, 2026 and describe past events. They do not establish current US gasoline conditions, and the supplied material does not link them to the specific AAA prices behind this contract.

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