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OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?

Name: OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
End: 2026-08-13T21:50:27.000Z

Total Volume

$176.57K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?

Vol

$176.57K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $176.57K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $176.57K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	Poly	88%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?	Poly	76%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?	Poly	66%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?	Poly	24%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?	Poly	13%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

88%

Top Probability

$176.57K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leade

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 13, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leade

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Arena.AI"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $176.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.5K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 23.44)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $39.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 87.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $46.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $36.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 66.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $32.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $22.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.3% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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