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Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?

Yes56%+13.0%

Vol$47.42K

Outcomes2

56%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?

Part of: OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?

YesYes Price

56¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$47.42K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Sep 6, 2026

less than a minute ago

Trade on Polymarket

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?

Yes

56¢

|

Vol

$47.42K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes56.5¢

No43.5¢

Price History

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

Resolves Today

September 06, 2026 • 12:28 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?

OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

September 06, 2026

12:28 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked “AutoEval” will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the “AutoEval” label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.