This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?

Total Volume

$0.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

When will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?

Vol

$0.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 8, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 8, 2026?	Kalshi	83%
Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 1, 2026?	Kalshi	72%
Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jul 18, 2026?	Kalshi	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

83%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If Jay Clayton is the first person confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug X 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, August 24, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If Jay Clayton is the first person confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug X 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Jay Clayton is the first person confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire e"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 8, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jul 18, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

When will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?

Volume$0.00

Markets3

3 of 3

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 8, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.0¢No 17.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 8, 2026?

If Jay Clayton is the first person confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire e

KALSHI

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.0¢No 28.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 1, 2026?

If Jay Clayton is the first person confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire e

KALSHI

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jul 18, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHITech

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jul 18, 2026?

If Jay Clayton is the first person confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

57¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/5dZW9r" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="When will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

When will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?

When will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 8, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

When will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?

Markets (3)

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 8, 2026?

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 8, 2026?

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 1, 2026?

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 1, 2026?

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jul 18, 2026?

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jul 18, 2026?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 8, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 8, 2026?

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 8, 2026?

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 1, 2026?

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 1, 2026?

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jul 18, 2026?

Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jul 18, 2026?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget