GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Illinois pension debt in 2026?

Total Volume

$0.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Illinois pension debt in 2026?

Vol

$0.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $140 billion?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $140 billion?	Kalshi	96%
Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $145 billion?	Kalshi	78%
Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $150 billion?	Kalshi	11%
Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $155 billion?	Kalshi	7%
Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $160 billion?	Kalshi	6%
Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $165 billion?	Kalshi	5%
Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $170 billion?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Fiscal Year 2026 If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above X billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026, as reported in the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s November S

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Illinois pension debt in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Fiscal Year 2026

If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above X billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026, as reported in the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s November S

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $170 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the comb"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $170 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $165 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $160 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $155 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $150 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $145 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $140 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Illinois pension debt in 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets7

7 of 7

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $140 billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $140 billion?

If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $140 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the comb

KALSHI

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $145 billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $145 billion?

If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $145 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the comb

KALSHI

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $150 billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $150 billion?

If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $150 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the comb

KALSHI

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $155 billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $155 billion?

If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $155 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the comb

KALSHI

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $160 billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $160 billion?

If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $160 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the comb

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

29¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/5mNNzd" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Illinois pension debt in 2026?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Illinois pension debt in 2026?

Illinois pension debt in 2026?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $140 billion?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Illinois pension debt in 2026?

Markets (7)

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $140 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $140 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $145 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $145 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $150 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $150 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $155 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $155 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $160 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $160 billion?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $140 billion?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Illinois pension debt in 2026?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $140 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $140 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $145 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $145 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $150 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $150 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $155 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $155 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $160 billion?

Will the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 be above $160 billion?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget