Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T06:00:06.106Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This snapshot covers a Kalshi event titled "Men's College Basketball Tournament: Top 2 Seeds," which concerns the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament. Each market asks whether a specific team will be selected as a seed in that tournament. The source states: "If X men's college basketball team is selected as a top 2 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes." It defines a top 2 seed as "any team that is selected as a #1 or #2 seed" [1]. The contract also states that "This market will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1].

The source excerpt says "Listed end time: not supplied," while the market records list an end date of 2027-05-02T14:00:00.000Z [1]. Readers should treat that date as a provider field, not as a confirmed resolution time, because the excerpt itself does not confirm it. A date in the contract data is not an announced event date.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 06:00:06 UTC on 18 October 2026, and the record was retrieved at 07:51:49 UTC the same day [1]. These figures describe that earlier observation and are not live quotes. Each Yes price is paired with a No price that sums to about 1, so the listed figures are the market's quoted probabilities at that moment, not verified probabilities.

Within this sample, the included Yes prices run from 0.76 for Florida to 0.21 for Texas Tech [1]. Duke is 0.73, Illinois 0.55, UConn 0.52, Houston 0.41, Texas 0.39, and Arizona 0.33 [1]. Several teams share a price of 0.28, including Michigan St., Louisville, and Arkansas [1].

These are separate contracts about separate teams. They should not be combined into a single average, and a higher price on one team does not make another team's contract a mispricing. Volume figures are not included here and should not be read as liquidity or as a count of traders.

What remains uncertain

The sample is partial. The event has 111 markets, and only 12 are included [1]. The selection rule ranks markets by Yes price, then volume, and the record notes that counts describe the saved provider event rather than the full field [1]. The prices of the other 99 markets are not shown, so this snapshot cannot describe them.

The excerpt does not explain why any price is where it is, and this analysis does not offer a cause. Because the snapshot is from a single observation time, it cannot show how prices have changed since then, and no later data is supplied.

References

1. Kalshi: Men's College Basketball Tournament: Top 2 Seeds. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T06:00:06.106Z.